Nisan ay\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta bireylere net kredi kulland\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda 6,2 milyar sterlin artarak piyasa beklentisi olan 7,1 milyar sterlinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, beklentilere g\u00f6re 0,9 milyar sterlinlik bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ederek, d\u00f6nem boyunca hanehalk\u0131 kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Nisan verisi, t\u00fcketici bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi ve daha geni\u015f ekonomideki talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelere dahil edilecek. Net kredinin tahmin edilen h\u0131z\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla birlikte, yava\u015flaman\u0131n kredi i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flamadan m\u0131, daha s\u0131k\u0131 kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan m\u0131, yoksa hanehalk\u0131 geri \u00f6deme kal\u0131plar\u0131ndaki zamanlama etkilerinden mi kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131na odaklan\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta t\u00fcketici bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin de \u00f6tesinde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n daha temkinli hale geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da ekonomide so\u011fuman\u0131n erken bir sinyali olabilir. Bunun, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kredilerdeki bu yava\u015flama, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesini \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal haline getiriyor. Hatta yaz boyunca faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki arg\u00fcman\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. SONIA vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nde (GBP) zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, GBP ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 gibi di\u011fer para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. GBP\/USD paritesinin 1,2500 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ONS\u2019nin son verileriyle de destekleniyor: Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta man\u015fet T\u00dcFE enflasyonu Nisan 2026\u2019da %2,1\u2019e gerileyerek Banka\u2019n\u0131n hedef seviyesine olduk\u00e7a yakla\u015ft\u0131. Kredi talebindeki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyonla birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimize benzer bir tablo. Bu d\u00f6nem, birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ekonomik durgunluk \u00f6ncesine denk gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca bunun, \u00f6zellikle perakende ve konut in\u015faat\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerindeki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k odakl\u0131 \u015firketler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. FTSE 100\u2019e k\u0131yasla yurti\u00e7i ekonomiye daha duyarl\u0131 olan FTSE 250 endeksi \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyele pozisyon almak i\u00e7in endekste call spread satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan kredi freni: Nisan\u2019da \u0130ngiltere net bireysel kredi 6,2 milyar sterlinle 7,1 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. BoE\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, indirime alan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor; GBP ve FTSE 250 bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}