\u0130ngiltere\u2019de M4 para arz\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131 ve piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Tahminler %0,6\u2019l\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyordu; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme b\u00f6ylece beklentinin 0,4 y\u00fczde puan alt\u0131nda geldi.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f veri, ay boyunca daha yava\u015f bir parasal geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ediyor. M4, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn elinde tuttu\u011fu para miktar\u0131n\u0131n (nakit ve banka mevduatlar\u0131 dahil) geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 ile likidite e\u011filimlerine dair sinyaller i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlenir.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck M4 para arz\u0131 verisi (%0,2; beklenti %0,6), s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere ekonomisini etkin \u015fekilde yava\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret eden \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu e\u011filim, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) son verileriyle de teyit ediliyor: y\u0131ll\u0131k M4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %1,1\u2019e gerileyerek, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bu veri noktas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin piyasalar\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha erken faiz indirimine gitmek zorunda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. En son ONS raporunda \u0130ngiltere enflasyonunun May\u0131s 2026\u2019da %2,5\u2019e geriledi\u011finin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle birlikte, faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma gerek\u00e7esi belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (MPC) yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvercin bir tona pivot yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faiz beklentilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanabilecek faiz t\u00fcrevlerine bak\u0131yoruz. Buna 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi ile 2027\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131na vadeli Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m yer al\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz alma (receive fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlara girmeyi de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nde zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de faiz beklentileri, temkinli duru\u015funu koruyan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) beklentilerine k\u0131yasla geriledik\u00e7e, GBP\/USD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, 2024\u2019te benzer politika ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda test edilen 1,2200 seviyesine do\u011fru potansiyel bir hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon almak amac\u0131yla GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k. Yava\u015flayan ekonomi FTSE 100 i\u00e7in bir olumsuzluk unsuruyken, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi beklentisi hisse de\u011ferlemeleri i\u00e7in destekleyici bir taban olu\u015fturabilir. Bu belirsizlik ve endeksin son d\u00f6nemdeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k i\u015flem band\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, volatilitedeki art\u0131\u015ftan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejilerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; FTSE 100 \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
M4 para arz\u0131 Nisan\u2019da %0,2 artt\u0131; beklenti (%0,6) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu, parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n etkisini ve BoE\u2019de erken faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; GBP bask\u0131lanabilir, SONIA\/Swap al\u0131m\u0131, FTSE\u2019de straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49258\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}