Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken i\u015flemlerde piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu man\u015fetlerini de\u011ferlendirirken sakin bir seyir izlendi; oda\u011fa Eurostat\u2019\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) ve ABD\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131 JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Pozisyonlar\u0131 raporu yerle\u015fti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakere heyeti, L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 protesto ederek arabulucular \u00fczerinden ABD ile mesaj al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fini durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli liman talebi dolar\u0131 destekledi; Dolar Endeksi pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Petrol de s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Bab\u2019\u00fcl Mendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131labilece\u011fi tehdidiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 y\u00fckseldi. Avrupa seans\u0131nda ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydederken, Dolar Endeksi 99,00 seviyesinin bir miktar \u00fczerinde tutundu.<\/p>\n
FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc negatif kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,1650\u2019ye do\u011fru toparland\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k HICP enflasyonunun may\u0131sta %3,2 ile nisanda kaydedilen %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. GBP\/USD, BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey\u2019nin ifadesi \u00f6ncesinde 1,3450 \u00fczerinde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. USD\/JPY, BoJ toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 azalt\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 ya da yava\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde taleplerin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda 159,70 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Alt\u0131n, pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc %1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli oda\u011f\u0131n petrol volatilitesi olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehditlerin, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019den fazlas\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratma potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, fiyatlarda sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalar son derece olas\u0131. Bu nedenle, bu istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 ila 60 g\u00fcn vadeli WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc, bu jeopolitik gerilimlerin do\u011frudan bir sonucu olarak klasik bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerindeki gidip gelmeler belirsizli\u011fi besleyerek Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 99,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklemeye devam edecek. Bunu, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 t\u0131rmanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak ad\u0131na bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde rahat bi\u00e7imde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek birincil g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konumunu yeniden peki\u015ftirdi. Bu fiyatlama, kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon ve tekrarlayan siyasi \u015foklar\u0131n y\u0131llara yay\u0131lan etkisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor; bu desenin 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u0131ras\u0131nda netle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu do\u011frultuda, portf\u00f6y\u00fcn \u00e7ekirdek korunma (hedge) unsuru olarak alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %3,2 ile y\u00fcksek seyretse de, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Euro\u2019daki olas\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc bast\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015fleri kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lamamas\u0131, altta yatan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fmazsa paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) g\u00fcvercin politika sinyalleriyle zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi kritik 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n tutuyor. Tarihsel olarak, m\u00fcdahale tehditleri olsa dahi ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki temel politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, stres d\u00f6nemlerinde bu pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r. Yen\u2019de ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak, temkinli bi\u00e7imde USD\/JPY uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu man\u015fetleri piyasalarda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikledi: Dolar 99 \u00fczerini korurken WTI, bo\u011fazlar\u0131n kapanma tehdidiyle %5 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. G\u00f6zler HICP-JOLTS\u2019ta; strateji: petrol call, DXY long, EUR\/USD put, alt\u0131n long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49257\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}