Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda %21,98\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselerek, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki -%3,1\u2019lik okumay\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu s\u0131\u00e7rama, son ayda d\u0131\u015f ticaret ivmesinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ederken, d\u0131\u015f sevkiyatlar\u0131n daralmadan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet ihracat oran\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve Nisan ay\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015f talebe ya da emtia ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Verilerle birlikte ek bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131; ancak -%3,1\u2019den %21,98\u2019e ge\u00e7i\u015f, takip eden aylar i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek bir \u00e7\u0131ta olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n %21,98\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 Endonezya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cbo\u011fa\u201d sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bir \u00f6nceki aydaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften bu denli sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, Endonezya \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel talepteki temel g\u00fcce ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Endonezya Rupisi\u2019nde (IDR) yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik ivmeyle birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/IDR kurunun gerilemesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bank Indonesia \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyarak politika faizini %6,25 seviyesinde tuttu; bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri, k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi i\u00e7in bankaya pek alan b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Bu nedenle 16.000 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip USD\/IDR vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na odaklan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ihracat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle malzeme ve enerji sekt\u00f6rlerinde Jakarta Composite Index\u2019te (JCI) i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u015firketlere do\u011frudan destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, 2020 sonras\u0131 emtia s\u00fcrecinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, JCI\u2019da rallilerin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabildi. JCI vadeli kontratlar\u0131ndaki uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve b\u00fcy\u00fck emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130hracattaki s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde emtialar, \u00f6zellikle ham palm ya\u011f\u0131 (CPO) ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu not ediyoruz. K\u00fcresel CPO stoklar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rken, fiyatlar Malezya borsas\u0131nda ton ba\u015f\u0131na 4.100 MYR seviyesinin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat verilerini, bu sa\u011flam talebin teyidi olarak yorumluyor ve CPO vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda \u201cbo\u011fa\u201d duru\u015funu destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz pozitif olmakla birlikte, bu trendin teyidi i\u00e7in May\u0131s ay\u0131 ticaret verisi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131, alg\u0131y\u0131 h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in vadeli pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131zda zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri kullan\u0131yoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, kilit ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019de olas\u0131 bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk olmaya devam etmesi nedeniyle k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergelerine de duyarl\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ralli: Endonezya ihracat\u0131 Nisan\u2019da -%3,1\u2019den %21,98\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Rupiah g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir, USD\/IDR\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n; BI \u015fahin. JCI, emtia a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 destek al\u0131rken \u00c7in yava\u015flama riski izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49251\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}