Avustralya\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yap\u0131 ruhsat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda h\u0131zland\u0131; onaylar y\u0131ll\u0131k %9\u2019dan %10,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu ivmelenme, planlanan in\u015faat faaliyetleri hatt\u0131nda (pipeline) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %9\u2019dan %10,2\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la k\u0131yasla onay hacimlerinde ilave bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131, konut ve konut d\u0131\u015f\u0131 in\u015faat i\u015fleri ile in\u015faat tedarik zinciri genelindeki ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 talep i\u00e7in s\u0131kl\u0131kla \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge olarak izlenir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %10,2\u2019ye h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015fken, bunu yaln\u0131zca bir konut g\u00f6stergesi olarak de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda altta yatan enflasyonist bask\u0131ya dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu oran, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ve s\u00fcregelen talebe i\u015faret ederken, malzeme ve i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetlerinde daha y\u00fcksek seviyelere zemin haz\u0131rlamas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (RBA) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumak i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisinin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,8 gelmesiyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde daha da \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Enflasyon RBA\u2019n\u0131n hedef band\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergenin, yak\u0131n vadede gev\u015femeye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir politika pivotunu son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n, RBA\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizleri sabit tutma ihtimalini \u015fu anda yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n Avustralya dolar\u0131 lehine hareket etmesinin muhtemel olmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Avustralya dolar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. Bir sonraki RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vadeli AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m taraf\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri de bu parite i\u015flemine ilave destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ASX 200 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha karma\u015f\u0131k ve ikili (pair) i\u015flemler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor. Hem bu yurti\u00e7i veri hem de demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131yla, in\u015faat ve malzeme \u015firketlerinin daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, teknoloji ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim gibi faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu spesifik sekt\u00f6rlerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir hedge arac\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc konut verilerinin piyasan\u0131n politika faizi beklentilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fi benzer bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu tarihsel emsal, 3 ayl\u0131k banka bonosu vadeli i\u015flemlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerin hatal\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa faiz indirimlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uza\u011fa \u00f6telenebilece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fini fiyatlarken, k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Avustralya\u2019da yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %10,2\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131; in\u015faat hatt\u0131 geni\u015fliyor, maliyet-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin kalmas\u0131, faizlerin sabit seyri olas\u0131. AUD g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir; sekt\u00f6rler ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}