WTI, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 90,60 dolara geriledi. \u00d6nceki seansta %4,71 y\u00fckselen fiyatlar, jeopolitik risk primlerinin daha zay\u0131f talep sinyalleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131yla geri \u00e7ekildi. Fiyatlar, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri durdurdu\u011funa dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran ve Yemen, L\u00fcbnan ve Irak\u2019taki m\u00fcttefik gruplar\u0131n ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen bloke edilmesi ve Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde eylem planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. X\u2019teki bir Axios payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta bo\u011faza ilave deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131 konu\u015fland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler, k\u00fcresel petrol ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2htaki ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 daraltma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, m\u00fczakerelerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta i\u00e7inde sa\u011flanabilece\u011fini ima etti. Bu arada L\u00fcbnanl\u0131 yetkililer, Hizbullah\u2013Tel Aviv ate\u015fkesinin olas\u0131 uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131n\u0131 kapsamas\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapt\u0131. Talep taraf\u0131nda ise \u00c7in\u2019de fabrika faaliyetinin duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden veriler bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Goldman Sachs, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da arz kesintisi potansiyelinin fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekerken, \u00c7in ve Avrupa\u2019daki zay\u0131f t\u00fcketimin Brent i\u00e7in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek 90 dolar\/varil ve WTI i\u00e7in 83 dolar\/varil hedeflerini zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, birbirinden olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 iki hik\u00e2ye taraf\u0131ndan z\u0131t y\u00f6nlere \u00e7ekiliyor. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli jeopolitik riskler, \u00f6zellikle ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakerelerin durmas\u0131yla birlikte, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek seviyelere gitmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bloke edilme ihtimali, tedarik zincirleri i\u00e7in ciddi ve acil bir tehdit anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131f ve bu da fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Son veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 51,7 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geni\u015fleme g\u00f6stermesine ra\u011fmen, zorlanan emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyuyor. Benzer \u015fekilde, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 47,3 ile 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da sanayi faaliyetinde s\u00fcregelen daralmaya ve enerji talebinin k\u0131s\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz \u015foku riski ile zay\u0131flayan k\u00fcresel talebin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in ideal bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n abluka tehditleri ile ABD\u2019nin olas\u0131 anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 gibi birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen ba\u015fl\u0131klar, herhangi bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla fiyatlar\u0131n sert \u015fekilde dalgalanabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki jeopolitik gerilimler keskin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; bo\u011fazlar\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 halinde bu kez farkl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir neden g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Bu hafta yap\u0131lacak OPEC+ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, grubun \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin karar\u0131 krize verilecek tepkinin sinyalini vermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak. Arz\u0131 art\u0131rma konusunda olas\u0131 bir teredd\u00fct, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Mevcut gerilim dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tam \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir abluka riskini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz; bu da onlar\u0131 pahal\u0131 k\u0131lmakla birlikte arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 gerekli bir koruma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, zay\u0131f talep temelleri, jeopolitik tablo h\u0131zla yat\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa herhangi bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, belirgin bir y\u00f6n beklentisiyle pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maktan ziyade, de\u011fi\u015fen ba\u015fl\u0131klara h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebilen i\u015flemcileri \u00f6d\u00fcllendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik denklem: WTI 90,60 dolara \u00e7ekildi; \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/Bab el-Mendeb gerilimi arz \u015foku riskini canl\u0131 tutarken, \u00c7in-Avrupa\u2019da zay\u0131f talep ve PMI\u2019lar y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenliyor. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49246\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}