EUR\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1635 seviyesine y\u00fckselerek 1,1600\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutundu; ancak yeni jeopolitik gerilimler kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u0130ran, arabulucular \u00fczerinden ABD ile mesaj al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fini durduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tamamen kapatma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ilerleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu durum, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 genellikle destekleyen riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) temas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) verisini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Washington\u2019da Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019yu Beyrut\u2019a y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bask\u0131na giri\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130srail birliklerinin geri \u00e7evrildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken; Netanyahu, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini belirtti. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u015fahin duru\u015fu, ECB \u0130cra Kurulu \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel\u2019in \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyonist etkilerin enerjiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerinin \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan euroya bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Daha geni\u015f euro ba\u011flam\u0131nda, para birimi AB\u2019de 20 \u00fclke taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131yor; 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama i\u015flem hacmi 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi; EUR\/USD\u2019nin ise t\u00fcm i\u015flemlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil etti\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kuvvet aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun karma\u015f\u0131k bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bir yanda ECB, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in \u015fahin bir duru\u015f sinyali veriyor; bu da euroyu desteklemeli. Di\u011fer yanda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilimler, g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma tehdidi, 1970\u2019lerde k\u00fcresel stagflasyona yol a\u00e7an petrol \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan \u00f6nemli bir piyasa belirleyicisi. Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri son 48 saatte %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2025 sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Durum, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin kendi enflasyon dinamikleriyle daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale geliyor; ge\u00e7en ay \u00e7ekirdek HICP %3,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korudu ve ECB hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, net y\u00f6n bahislerinin riskli oldu\u011funa; bunun yerine oynakl\u0131\u011fa odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun straddle (al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) pozisyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; bu strateji, hangi y\u00f6nde olursa olsun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik geli\u015fme pariteyi sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilirken, beklenenden y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramaya neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f riskini dikkate alarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korumay\u0131 da masaya koyuyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ila d\u00f6rt hafta vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir hedge y\u00f6ntemi sunuyor. Paritenin psikolojik 1,1500 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde riskin belirginle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Haziran\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya ve Fransa \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. ZEW Ekonomik G\u00fcven anketinden gelen son veriler, beklentilerde gerilemeye i\u015faret ederek y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomileri \u00fczerinde \u015fimdiden bask\u0131 kuruyor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130lave zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin kalabilmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Cboe EuroCurrency Volatilite Endeksi (EVZ) ise piyasan\u0131n artan tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131tarak \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 8,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu kar\u015f\u0131t anlat\u0131lar devrede kald\u0131k\u00e7a ima edilen volatilitenin daha da artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu da, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyon primi uzun (long premium) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak benimsedi\u011fimiz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz tehdidi ve Ortado\u011fu tansiyonu dolara g\u00fcvenli liman talebi getirirken, \u015fahin ECB euroyu destekliyor: EUR\/USD 1,1635\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6zler HICP, PMI\u2019lar; petrol \u015foku volatiliteyi k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49245\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}