ABD Dolar\u0131, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n talebi desteklemesiyle de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD hisse ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Juneteenth nedeniyle kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131yla veri g\u00fcndemi zay\u0131f; takvimde tek planl\u0131 veri Kanada\u2019dan nisan Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar. Bu ortamda piyasalar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler ve merkez bankas\u0131 yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130srail\u2019in G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir ABD seyahatinin iptal edilmesi nedeniyle planlanan ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim ajans\u0131 ise, ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fmada yer alan L\u00fcbnan\u2019da ate\u015fkes \u015fart\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak m\u00fczakerecilerin seyahat edece\u011fine dair bir teyit bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
USD Endeksi (DXY) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckselerek May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 101,10\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 100,90 civar\u0131na \u00e7ekildi. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutarken, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndan (MPC) iki \u00fcye 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015ftan yana oy kulland\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n GBP\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 gerileyerek 1,3200 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Reuters, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nden belediye ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Kuzey \u0130ngiltere\u2019de bir sandalyeyi kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirerek siyasi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. EUR\/USD, ECB \u00fcyesi Jos\u00e9 Luis Escriv\u00e1\u2019n\u0131n FXS Speechtracker\u2019da 10 \u00fczerinden 6,2 (ortalama 4,8\/10) puan almas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 1,1450 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan gerileyerek 4.150 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, USD\/JPY Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 161,80\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ard\u0131ndan BoJ Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Himino\u2019nun faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel patikas\u0131n\u0131 yinelemesiyle 161,00\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutundu.<\/p>\n
Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu bu ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda izlenecek ana trendin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yeni \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin iptal edilmesi g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor; ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n tatil nedeniyle kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 ise s\u0131\u011f likidite nedeniyle hareketin abart\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 en temkinli strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ne (DXY) veya dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lere y\u00f6nelik al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Volatilite y\u00fckseliyor: Cboe Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) bu hafta %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde artarak 18\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131, sert piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya bu hareketlere y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkin bir ara\u00e7 h\u00e2line getiriyor. Jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n zor olmas\u0131 nedeniyle DXY\u2019nin daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri test etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Sterlin \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve dolara kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. B\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ile taze siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birle\u015fimi, GBP\/USD i\u00e7in net bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n senaryosu olu\u015fturuyor. Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc daha \u00f6nce, 2022\u2019deki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda da g\u00f6rd\u00fck; siyasi belirsizlik sterline ciddi \u015fekilde bask\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Benzer \u015fekilde Euro, ECB yetkililerinden gelen \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ra\u011fmen destek bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor. ABD ile Almanya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark 170 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015fleyerek dolar cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve EUR\/USD i\u00e7in ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine i\u015faret ediyor. 1,1300 seviyesine olas\u0131 bir hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu seviyelerde USD\/JPY\u2019de do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya, Japon otoritelerinden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riski nedeniyle temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bunun yerine, olas\u0131 ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken ani bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finde kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Son b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde (2022 sonu) parite haftalar i\u00e7inde 10 yenden fazla gerilemi\u015fti; bu da sert bir ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n, bu riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ikliminde ralli yapamamas\u0131, dolar\u0131n ezici g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Dolar Endeksi ile alt\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki negatif korelasyon son bir ayda -0,8\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek dolar\u0131n k\u00fcl\u00e7e fiyatlamas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki belirleyicili\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Dolar rallisinde t\u00fckenme i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131naca\u011f\u0131z; hatta alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik gerilim ve tatil nedeniyle s\u0131\u011f piyasa dolara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131: DXY 101\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. BoE b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc, sterlin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; euro zay\u0131f. USD\/JPY 161 \u00fczeri, alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Opsiyonlarla dolar lehine temkinli pozisyon \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49152","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49152"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49152\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}