Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %1,2 artarak piyasan\u0131n %0,5\u2019lik tahminini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, ay boyunca t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ivmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6receli olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, beklentilerin 0,7 y\u00fczde puan \u00fczerinde geldi ve yak\u0131n vadeli aktivite g\u00f6stergeleri i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir veri s\u00fcrprizi sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki %1,2\u2019lik s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2014%0,5\u2019lik tahminin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde\u2014Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta t\u00fcketici talebinin diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funa dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde ve sert faiz indirimleri beklentisine do\u011frudan meydan okuyor. Harcamalardaki g\u00fc\u00e7, altta yatan enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n umuldu\u011fu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son enflasyon rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) %2,9 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu nedenle, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nden fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden. Bu haberle birlikte parite 1,2850 diren\u00e7 seviyesini zaten a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,3000\u2019e do\u011fru bir yol g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131 da tepki veriyor: 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k devlet tahvili (Gilt) getirisi bu sabah 10 baz puan artarak %4,55\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Piyasan\u0131n, neredeyse kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131lan A\u011fustos faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da fiyatlamaktan \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bunu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselmesinden k\u00e2r sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, uluslararas\u0131 benzerlerine k\u0131yasla iskontolu i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7 pazar odakl\u0131 hisseler i\u00e7in de olumlu bir g\u00f6sterge. \u00d6zellikle, FTSE 100\u2019e k\u0131yasla Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisine daha fazla duyarl\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yan FTSE 250 endeksine odaklan\u0131yoruz. FTSE 250\u2019yi takip eden ETF\u2019ler \u00fczerindeki al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya belirli t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) hisseleri cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bu veri noktas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama anlat\u0131s\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fmesi nedeniyle artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 da dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2022\u2019de beklentileri a\u015fan verilerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fta kalmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, bunun bir yava\u015flama \u00f6ncesi t\u00fcketici faaliyetinde son bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olma ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc baz\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge ediyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri! \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta %1,2 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; BoE\u2019nin h\u0131zl\u0131 indirim beklentileri sars\u0131ld\u0131. Sterlin g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, GBP\/USD 1,30 hedefte; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt faizi %4,55. FTSE 250 f\u0131rsat. Oynakl\u0131k riski, opsiyonlarla hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47807,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49145\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}