USD\/IDR, \u00fc\u00e7 seans \u00fcst \u00fcste kaydedilen y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan gerileyerek Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 17.840 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Bu s\u0131rada, MSCI\u2019nin Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilirli\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve koordineli i\u015flemler ile \u015feffaf olmayan ortakl\u0131k yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stermesi sonras\u0131 rupiah ve yerel hisseler bask\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131k kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Uyar\u0131, MSCI\u2019nin piyasa s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi \u00f6ncesine denk gelirken Endonezya h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda d\u00fcnyadaki en zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6steren b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse piyasas\u0131 konumunda. Gelecek hafta \u201cgeli\u015fen piyasa\u201ddan \u201cs\u0131n\u0131r piyasa\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcne olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, kurumsal sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyerek 13 milyar dolara varabilecek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7abilir; bu tutar, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2026\u2019da Endonezya hisselerinden h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00e7ekti\u011fi 3,65 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa eklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken rupiah, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan ilk anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz endi\u015felerini azaltan daha iyi k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan destek buldu. CNN, anla\u015fman\u0131n 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir m\u00fczakere s\u00fcrecinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, ABD ordusu H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulanan ablukay\u0131 sonland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131; yetkililer, rotadan yeniden milyonlarca varilin ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ancak \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc B\u00fcrgenstock g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulamas\u0131 ve haberlerde ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in seyahatini iptal etti\u011finin belirtilmesiyle temkin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ayr\u0131ca piyasan\u0131n \u015fahin bir Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlamas\u0131yla dolar h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131na oda\u011f\u0131 ve FOMC\u2019de \u00fcyelerin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f duru\u015fla da peki\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftaki MSCI piyasa s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi \u00f6ncesinde Endonezya rupiah\u0131nda belirgin bir oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. \u201cS\u0131n\u0131r piyasa\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcne olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Pakistan\u2019\u0131n 2022\u2019deki yeniden s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen bask\u0131ya benzer \u015fekilde, ciddi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilecek y\u00fcksek etkili bir olay. Bu risk, USD\/IDR opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatiliteyi %11\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tedirginli\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk iyimserlik, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019deki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sekteye u\u011framas\u0131yla tamamen da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131. Yeniden y\u00fckselen jeopolitik belirsizlik, sermayeyi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klara, ba\u015fta ABD dolar\u0131na, y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerinin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n yeniden \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, rupiah i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek unsurunu zay\u0131flatarak bu \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fahin duru\u015fuyla daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Son ABD T\u00dcFE verilerinin enflasyonun %3,4 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesi, Fed\u2019in fiyat istikrar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cdaha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde daha az diren\u00e7li bir patikaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin ayn\u0131 anda devreye girmesiyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda IDR\u2019de ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon alman\u0131n en ihtiyatl\u0131 strateji oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. MSCI duyurusunun ard\u0131ndan 18.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerine olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, muhtemelen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uzun USD\/IDR pozisyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Mevcut ortam, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f bir rupiah senaryosunu destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik uyar\u0131: MSCI g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi \u00f6ncesi USD\/IDR 17.840\u2019a gerilerken rupiah bask\u0131da. \u201cS\u0131n\u0131r piyasa\u201d riski 13 milyar $ \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f tetikleyebilir; jeopolitik, Brent 95$ ve \u015fahin Fed dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49143","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49143"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49143\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49143"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49143"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}