EUR\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,1425 civar\u0131nda geriledi. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, ABD dolar\u0131na olan talebi destekledi. Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130svi\u00e7re D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019deki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere y\u00f6nelik seyahatini iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan B\u00fcrgenstock\u2019taki temaslar\u0131n planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde ilerlemeyece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim haber ajans\u0131, \u0130ran heyetinin seyahatinin kesinle\u015fmedi\u011fini bildirirken, L\u00fcbnan merkezli Al Mayadeen TV ise g\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki devam eden \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle ekibin planlar\u0131n\u0131 erteledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, RSI 30,6 seviyesinde bulunarak momentumu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde tuttu. Diren\u00e7 1,1450\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger SMA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 1,1577 civar\u0131nda; daha yukar\u0131da 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 1,1665 ve \u00fcst bant 1,1705 yak\u0131n\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Destek 1,1411\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 1,1308\u2019i g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Ayr\u0131 olarak, 2022 verileri euroyu g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki FX i\u015flem hacminde %31 payla g\u00f6steriyor; EUR\/USD\u2019nin pay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 olarak tahmin edilirken, EUR\/JPY %4 ve EUR\/GBP %3 ile izliyor; EUR\/AUD %2 seviyesinde. ECB y\u0131lda sekiz politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yor ve %2 HICP enflasyon hedefini benimsiyor; Almanya, Fransa, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya euro b\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin %75\u2019ini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1425 \u00e7evresinde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z temkinli olma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi net; ancak G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmesiyle ani bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme riski art\u0131yor. Bu seviyelerde agresif yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz; zira a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum t\u00fckenmeye yakla\u015f\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha zay\u0131f bir euroyu destekliyor ve bu durum dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc besleyen bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor. Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %1,9\u2019a geriledi\u011fini ve bunun Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu koruma alan\u0131 verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2,8 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde daha y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. 2024\u2019teki faiz indirimlerinden bu yana geli\u015fen bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, euro yerine ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 avantajl\u0131 k\u0131lmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ptal edilen ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleriyle artan jeopolitik belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda, EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin %8,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve bunun \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu, prim satmay\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor; bu nedenle 1,1577 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (short strike) i\u00e7eren bear call spread\u2019leri tercih ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, parite d\u00fc\u015ferse, yatay kal\u0131rsa hatta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselirse dahi getiri potansiyeli sunarken, azami riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m RSI otomatik bir al\u0131m sinyali de\u011fildir; \u00f6zellikle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde. 2024\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda benzer ko\u015fullarda fiyat\u0131n anlaml\u0131 bir toparlanma sergilemeden \u00f6nce haftalarca konsolide oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa vadeli uzun pozisyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeden \u00f6nce 1,1450 direncinin \u00fczerine teyitli bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklenmelidir.<\/p>\n
1,1308 destek seviyesine do\u011fru devam eden bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak isteyenler i\u00e7in put spread kullan\u0131m\u0131 temkinli bir tercihtir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m bir varl\u0131kta sert tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011finden riske edilen sermayeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlar. B\u00f6ylece h\u00e2kim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendiyle uyumlu, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli bir strateji sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik belirsizlik dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, EUR\/USD 1,1425\u2019e indi. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda; 1,1450 diren\u00e7, 1,1411\/1,1308 destek izleniyor. Opsiyon volatilitesi %8,5: bear call ve put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49142\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}