GBP\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de gerileyerek 1,3200\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi ve Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, haftal\u0131k bazda sert kay\u0131plara haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, 1,3460 civar\u0131ndaki haftal\u0131k swing zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan fiyat hareketi h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere i\u00e7 siyasetindeki risklerin s\u00fcrmesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Greater Manchester Belediye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin kuzeyinde bir parlamento sandalyesi kazanmas\u0131, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019a meydan okumaya giden yolu a\u00e7t\u0131. Faiz beklentileri de kayd\u0131: hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki daha yumu\u015fak enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan piyasalar, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) daha agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bahisleri azaltt\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ise enerji \u015foku endi\u015felerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek BoE\u2019nin faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Dolar, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline i\u015faret etmesiyle Mart sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik belirsizlik, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) deste\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri i\u00e7in planlanan \u0130svi\u00e7re seyahatini, toplant\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmedi\u011fini belirterek iptal etti. \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair \u015f\u00fcpheleri art\u0131r\u0131rken, piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 bir sonraki kataliz\u00f6r olarak \u0130ngiltere ayl\u0131k Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019deki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir etken; son YouGov anketleri, liderlik m\u00fccadelesi ortam\u0131nda Ba\u015fbakan Starmer\u2019\u0131n onay oran\u0131n\u0131n %28 ile yeni bir dip seviyeye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, \u0130ngiliz sterlini i\u00e7in uzun vadeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu olu\u015fturmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma daha belirgin hale geliyor ve sterlindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekliyor. Son ONS verilerinin \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun %2,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesiyle BoE\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r modunda kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n, sermayeyi ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, GBP\/USD\u2019de ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir strateji haline getiriyor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 bu duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdiden yans\u0131t\u0131yor; bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal\u2019lar, call\u2019lara k\u0131yasla put\u2019lara y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve giderek artan bir e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. 1,3250 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015flerin, yeni ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler de ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini art\u0131rarak cable \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) bu hafta %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 19\u2019un \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019in askeri ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin artan piyasa endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi 1,3150 seviyesinin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 izliyoruz; bu k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1,3000\u2019deki kritik psikolojik deste\u011fin test edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Parite i\u00e7in s\u0131radaki ana kataliz\u00f6r \u0130ngiltere Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi olacak. Zay\u0131f bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc peki\u015ftirerek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\u2019de alarm: GBP\/USD 1,3200 alt\u0131na inerek Nisan\u2019dan beri dip g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ngiltere siyaseti ve BoE\u2019nin g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmesi bask\u0131 yaparken, \u015fahin Fed ve jeopolitik riskler dolar\u0131 destekliyor; hedef 1,3150-1,3000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49132\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}