Philadelphia Fed\u2019in haziran ay\u0131 imalat anketi 10,3 ile piyasa beklentisi olan 10 seviyesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Veri, bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla b\u00f6lgede fabrika faaliyetlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klama, mevcut ko\u015fullar ve beklentilere ili\u015fkin yak\u0131ndan izlenen iki referans noktas\u0131 sunuyor: man\u015fet endeks seviyesi ve piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131 tahmini. Endeksin 10,3 ile pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalmas\u0131 ve 10\u2019luk beklentinin az da olsa a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, haziran i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden bir miktar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Philadelphia b\u00f6lgesinden gelen beklentileri a\u015fan bu imalat verisi, ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Bu veri, ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steren may\u0131s T\u00dcFE raporunun ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu da yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bunu, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015funu destekleyen bir ba\u015fka kan\u0131t olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarl\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle eyl\u00fcl SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131yoruz. Piyasa, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna kadar bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019ye yak\u0131n fiyatl\u0131yordu; ancak bu veri muhtemelen bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ayarlama, Fed\u2019in bu yaz politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitme ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 gibi hisse endekslerinde, bu istikrarl\u0131 ekonomik veri k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Piyasan\u0131n bu g\u00fcc\u00fc, Fed\u2019in gev\u015femeyi ertelemesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olarak yorumlayabilece\u011fini ve bunun hisseler i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yatay seyir potansiyelinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in SPX \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rt\u00fck volatilitenin gerilemesi muhtemel; zira bu rapor, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok yaratmadan belirsizli\u011fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, ekonomik verilerin beklentilere yak\u0131n gelmesi durumunda VIX endeksi, ekonomik \u201cu\u00e7urum\u201d ya da ani bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi korkular\u0131 azald\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde oluyor. Daha sakin bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 beklentisiyle temmuz vadeli VIX kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 takip ediyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Philadelphia Fed imalat endeksi haziranda 10,3 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131: b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip eyl\u00fcl SOFR call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, SPX call spread ve temmuz VIX sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49130","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49130"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49130\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}