ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalamas\u0131, 12 Haziran haftas\u0131nda 223,25 bine y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki 219 bin seviyesinden artt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015f, yeni i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filiminde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kaymaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veri, haftadan haftaya oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltabilen ilk ba\u015fvurular\u0131n yumu\u015fat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f seyrini izliyor. 223,25 bin ile son okuma, \u00f6nceki 219 bin seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalarak son bir ayda ortalama ba\u015fvuru yapanlar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 223.250\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama dikkat \u00e7ekici bir art\u0131\u015f. Bu durum, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yumu\u015famaya ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve bekledi\u011fimiz kritik sinyallerden biri. Bu veri noktas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ekonomik faaliyetin so\u011fudu\u011fu fikrini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Nitekim faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay yaln\u0131zca %50\u2019ydi. Biz de buna, k\u0131sa vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahvil getirilerini \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bunun yumu\u015fak ini\u015f mi yoksa daha sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrecin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair belirsizlik, muhtemelen piyasa volatilitesini art\u0131racak. VIX\u2019in h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan 13,5 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, geli\u015fen bu e\u011filim dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fazla rahat bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ya da SPX \u00fczerinde straddle stratejilerini maliyet-etkin bir y\u00f6ntem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek sekt\u00f6rleri, \u00f6zellikle de teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc tercih ediyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi rallisini oynamak i\u00e7in Nasdaq 100 gibi teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ger\u00e7ek bir ekonomik yava\u015flama riskinin artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla sanayi veya iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim hisselerini takip edenler gibi daha d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel ETF\u2019lerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yakla\u015fan enflasyon verileri ve bir sonraki ayl\u0131k istihdam raporu olacak. Bu kritik makro a\u00e7\u0131klamalar etraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanaca\u011f\u0131z; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunlar i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki yumu\u015faman\u0131n bir trend mi yoksa ge\u00e7ici bir g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc m\u00fc oldu\u011funu teyit edecek. Sonraki raporlarda 225.000\u2019in \u00fczerindeki herhangi bir de\u011fer, daha defansif bir duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde destekleyecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de 4 haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu ortalamas\u0131 223,25 bine y\u00fckseldi: \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda yumu\u015fama sinyali. Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %65\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; volatilite\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}