Nomura, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %0,00 seviyesinde tuttu\u011funu ve bir \u00f6nceki kararda ilk kez ortaya koydu\u011fu, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz (FX) piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etme isteklili\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki y\u00f6nlendirmeyi yineledi\u011fini belirtti. A\u00e7\u0131klama, marttan bu yana \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan m\u00fcdahalelerin \u201cgerekli olmas\u0131 halinde\u201d yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayacak \u015fekilde revize edilirken, yetkililer bu ayarlaman\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki harekete kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
SNB, enerji fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin ko\u015fullu enflasyon tahminini %0,5\u2019ten %0,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltirken, orta vadeli enflasyon dinamiklerine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesini genel olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019da GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini korudu. Enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %0\u20132 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131yla birlikte Nomura, SNB\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte faizleri %0,00\u2019da tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika faizini %0,00\u2019da tutarken, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket bekliyoruz. Bankan\u0131n net mesaj\u0131 bir istikrar d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da SARON vadeli kontratlar\u0131 ve swaplar\u0131n dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini desteklemeli. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, enflasyonun %0\u20132 hedefi i\u00e7inde rahat bi\u00e7imde kalmas\u0131yla da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle de h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 0,9850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren EUR\/CHF paritesine kay\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n frank\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olmas\u0131, bu parite i\u00e7in yumu\u015fak bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu durumun, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli asimetrik bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, istikrardan veya daha zay\u0131f bir franktan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/CHF\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak gibi. Paritede 3 ay vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n ima edilen volatilitesi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 seviyesine gerileyerek, piyasan\u0131n SNB\u2019nin frankta sert bir de\u011ferlenmeyi engelleyece\u011fine dair g\u00fcvenini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu ortam, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle prim toplamaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyon verisinin %1,4 ile gelmesi de bankan\u0131n sab\u0131rl\u0131 duru\u015funu destekliyor ve harekete ge\u00e7me y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. 2015\u2019te frank \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla ya\u015fanan b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa \u015fokunu hat\u0131rlasak da, mevcut \u201cgerekli olmas\u0131 halinde\u201d ifadesi \u00e7ok daha yumu\u015fak ve daha reaktif bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da bankan\u0131n yaln\u0131zca frankta istenmeyen bir ralliye kar\u015f\u0131 koymak i\u00e7in devreye girece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SNB faizi haziranda %0,00\u2019de sabit tuttu; \u201cgerekirse\u201d FX m\u00fcdahalesi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. 2026 enflasyon tahmini %0,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1. EUR\/CHF\u2019de taban alg\u0131s\u0131, opsiyonla prim f\u0131rsat\u0131 do\u011furuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49123\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}