Sterlinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla euro, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politikay\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. EUR\/GBP, ge\u00e7en hazirandaki 0,8655 zirvesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 0,8670 civar\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. BoE, Banka Faizi\u2019ni 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2 oyla %3,75\u2019te de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; Swati Dhingra ve Huw Pill 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekledi. Tutanaklar, may\u0131sta enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hafifledi\u011fine ve bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in enflasyon tahminlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi\u011fine i\u015faret ederken; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011fa dikkat \u00e7ekti ve nisan ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla temel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri i\u00e7 dinamiklere dair daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 sundu. Nisan\u2019a kadarki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda i\u015fsizlik, %5\u2019ten %4,9\u2019a geriledi; piyasada de\u011fi\u015fim beklenmiyordu. \u0130stihdam 100 bin artt\u0131; art\u0131\u015f 148 binden yava\u015flasa da 80 binlik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu: Prim hari\u00e7 ortalama kazan\u00e7lar %3,4\u2019te kalarak %3,2 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131; primler dahil kazan\u00e7lar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,4 ile de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Almanya\u2019n\u0131n IFO\u2019su bu y\u0131l enflasyonu %2,9 ve 2027\u2019de %2,7 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise bu y\u0131l %0,8 ve 2027\u2019de %0,8 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, %1,2\u2019den a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize etti.<\/p>\n
Bu per\u015fembe yap\u0131lacak faiz karar\u0131na haz\u0131rlanan \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) \u00f6ncesinde euronun sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ivmelendi\u011fini izliyoruz. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u0130ngiltere enflasyon verisinin hedefin az \u00fczerinde %2,1 gelmesiyle piyasa, politika sinyallerine kar\u015f\u0131 hassas. Yayg\u0131n beklenti olan faizi sabit tutma karar\u0131, yine de gelecekte olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131 merce\u011finden fiyatlanabilir.<\/p>\n
BoE a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo, inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle karma\u015f\u0131k. Son veriler \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 %5,7 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik %4,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131 temel enflasyon endi\u015fesi olmaya devam ediyor. Bu belirsizlik, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman GBP paritelerinde opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda faiz indirimiyle BoE\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti. Ancak sonraki ad\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin temkinli ton, euroya bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Bununla birlikte Almanya gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131\u2014bu y\u0131l GSYH\u2019nin %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda artmas\u0131 bekleniyor\u2014euronun yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede EUR\/GBP\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n alman\u0131n makul oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n, BoE\u2019deki oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan gelebilecek \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz ya da beklenenden g\u00fcvercin bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi kanaatindeyiz. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc duyurunun ard\u0131ndan her iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in basit bir strangle veya straddle opsiyon stratejisi etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak para politikas\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma bu parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr. BoE\u2019nin a\u011fustosta faiz indirimi i\u00e7in net bir patikaya i\u015faret etmesi, buna kar\u015f\u0131n ECB\u2019nin beklemede kalmas\u0131 halinde, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin 0,8450 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki son hareketinin belirgin bir momentum kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleriz. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutunca sterlin zay\u0131flad\u0131, EUR\/GBP 0,8670 ile \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. \u00dccret bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken ECB indirimi euroyu destekliyor; toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49122\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}