Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesinin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. GBP\/USD paritesi 1,3200 civar\u0131nda iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini test ederken 1,3220\u2019nin de alt\u0131na indi. BoE, Bank Rate\u2019i beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n iki politika yap\u0131c\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekledi; Swati Dhingra bu kanatta Huw Pill\u2019e kat\u0131ld\u0131. BoE ayr\u0131ca bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin enflasyon tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize ederken, Nisan ay\u0131 projeksiyonlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u00e7ekirdek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dair de\u011ferlendirmesini yukar\u0131 g\u00fcncelledi.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo \u00e7izdi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, Nisan\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde %5\u2019ten %4,9\u2019a gerileyerek de\u011fi\u015fim beklenmeyen tahminlerin alt\u0131nda geldi. \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 100 bin olurken, \u00f6nceki 148 binin gerisinde kalsa da 80 binlik piyasa beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu: Bonus hari\u00e7 ortalama kazan\u00e7lar %3,4 ile %3,2\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bonus dahil kazan\u00e7lar ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,4 artarak de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Dolar, Fed\u2019in faizleri %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131; Fed gev\u015feme e\u011filimine i\u015faret eden dili metinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, kurul \u00fcyelerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu ile BoE\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutma tercihi aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu politika fark\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Sterlin\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6zellikle 1,3200 seviyesinin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc, Fed\u2019in yeni ba\u015fkan d\u00f6nemindeki y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle destekleniyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesine y\u00f6nelik bu beklenti sermaye giri\u015fini art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,9\u2019a gerilemesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gibi i\u00e7 veriler etkileyici olsa da, BoE\u2019nin pasif kalmas\u0131 bu olumlu tabloyu g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Piyasalar, BoE\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla enflasyon konusunda daha az endi\u015feli oldu\u011funun i\u015fareti olarak yorumluyor. Bu da \u015fimdilik sterlini dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n vadesi Temmuz sonu veya A\u011fustos olan GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, 1,3000-1,3100 band\u0131na olas\u0131 bir hareketten tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Mart ay\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,3160 seviyesindeki y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip noktan\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, benzer politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n sterlinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2014-2015 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret verilerinin BoE\u2019yi beklenmedik \u015fekilde \u015fahinle\u015fmeye zorlayabilece\u011fini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Bir sonraki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi, bu beklentinin \u015fekillenmesinde kritik \u00f6neme sahip olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te tutarken Fed \u015fahinle\u015fti, GBP\/USD 1,3200\u2019e indi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccretlere ra\u011fmen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc besliyor; 1,3200 alt\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,30 hedef g\u00fcndemde. Put \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49120"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49120\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}