{"id":49119,"date":"2026-06-18T15:42:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T15:42:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-hurmuz-enerji-sokunun-euro-bolgesi-buyume-gorunumunu-bulandirmasiyla-eur-usddeki-toparlanmanin-sinirli-kalacagini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T15:42:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T15:42:35","slug":"rabobank-hurmuz-enerji-sokunun-euro-bolgesi-buyume-gorunumunu-bulandirmasiyla-eur-usddeki-toparlanmanin-sinirli-kalacagini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-hurmuz-enerji-sokunun-euro-bolgesi-buyume-gorunumunu-bulandirmasiyla-eur-usddeki-toparlanmanin-sinirli-kalacagini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Enerji \u015eokunun Euro B\u00f6lgesi B\u00fcy\u00fcme G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Buland\u0131rmas\u0131yla EUR\/USD\u2019deki Toparlanman\u0131n S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rabobank\u2019un FX Stratejisi raporuna g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l EUR\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6nemli itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden biri euro olurken, bu harekete dolar\u0131n iyi belgelenmi\u015f zay\u0131flamas\u0131 da e\u015flik etti. Rapor, y\u00fckseli\u015fi Almanya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 frenini gev\u015fetmesine ba\u011fl\u0131yor; bu ad\u0131m Avrupa b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin beklentileri iyile\u015ftirerek ortak para birimini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

Banka \u015fimdi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonist etkilerinin ekonomik faaliyet \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla Avrupa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn so\u011fumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve bir sonraki turda ECB b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesi riskine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Euro, son aylarda ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinden bir miktar destek bulmu\u015f olsa da Rabobank bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n zaten fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadede bir toparlanma alan\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye devam etse de, tahminlerini piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn alt\u0131nda tutuyor ve \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k hedefini 1,16 olarak belirliyor.<\/p>\n

Enerji Fiyat \u015eoklar\u0131 ve Euro\u2019nun Zay\u0131flayan G\u00fcc\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Euro\u2019nun \u00f6nceki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc karard\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son geli\u015fmelerin tetikledi\u011fi enflasyon \u015foku, ekonomi i\u00e7in ciddi r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar yarat\u0131yor. Bu bask\u0131, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini yak\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmek zorunda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Etki enerji piyasalar\u0131nda \u015fimdiden g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr durumda ve bu da do\u011frudan Avrupa sanayisini ve t\u00fcketicileri etkiliyor. Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 son \u00e7eyrekte %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve bu art\u0131\u015f \u00fcretim maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fcretici fiyat enflasyonunun ge\u00e7en ay %1,1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu e\u011filim \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131racak.<\/p>\n

Para Politikas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve EUR\/USD G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

G\u00fcven g\u00f6stergeleri de ekonomik yava\u015flamaya ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131 sinyalleri veriyor. \u00d6nemli bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge olan Almanya ZEW Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi bu ay beklentilerin aksine gerileyerek 41,5\u2019e indi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha zorlu ko\u015fullara haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, ECB\u2019nin mevcut b\u00fcy\u00fcme projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n fazla iyimser oldu\u011fu ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir revizyonun yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fczle uyumlu.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri euroyu desteklemi\u015f olsa da, bu unsurun art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 265 bin artmas\u0131yla bir ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu da Fed\u2019e mevcut politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme konusunda daha fazla esneklik sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n EUR\/USD paritesi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte daha zay\u0131f bir euroya pozisyonlanma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, paritede 1,16 tahminimize do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu strateji, kur \u00e7iftindeki beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle getiri elde etmenin bir yolunu sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu dinami\u011fi daha \u00f6nce, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019daki 2022 enerji krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Enflasyondaki s\u0131\u00e7rama ve derin resesyon endi\u015feleri, EUR\/USD\u2019yi iki on y\u0131l sonra ilk kez paritenin alt\u0131na itmi\u015fti. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, \u015fiddetli bir enerji \u015fokuyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda euro aleyhine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rabobank uyar\u0131yor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku euroyu zay\u0131flatabilir. Brent 95 dolara, \u00dcFE %1,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ZEW d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ECB b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini indirimi riskiyle EUR\/USD\u2019de 3 ay hedef 1,16.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49119\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}