\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizini (Bank Rate) %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu ve b\u00f6ylece faizleri sabit b\u0131rakma serisini d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc karara ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f oldu. Oylama 7-2 sonu\u00e7lan\u0131rken, Huw Pill ve Greene 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015ftan yana oy kulland\u0131. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (MPC), T\u00dcFE\u2019nin orta vadede %2 hedefine d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in gerekti\u011finde harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yinelerken, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir enflasyon patikas\u0131 ve nisan ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7ekirdek b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyali verdi. Banka, son d\u00f6rt ayda y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, ikinci tur etkilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verilece\u011fini taahh\u00fct etti.<\/p>\n
Revize tahminler, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 4\u00c7\u2019de %3,25\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret etti; bu seviye, nisan ay\u0131ndaki A ve B senaryolar\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,6\u2013%3,7 band\u0131n\u0131n ve C senaryosundaki %6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda. BoE ayr\u0131ca 2\u00c7\u2019de temel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k +%0,2 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; nisan tahmini +%0,1 seviyesindeydi. Piyasalar sterlini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti: GBP\/USD 1,3215\u2019e gerileyerek nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00d6nceki veriler ba\u011flam\u0131nda; may\u0131s enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8 ile yatay seyrederken, ayl\u0131k enflasyon %0,7\u2019den %0,2\u2019ye indi; Brent, \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131 seviyesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; GSYH ise marttaki +%0,3 ve \u015fubattaki +%0,4\u2019\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan nisan ay\u0131nda %0,1 darald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %3,75\u2019te tutma karar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n enflasyon endi\u015felerinden ziyade ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3215\u2019e h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n iki \u015fahin muhalif oydan \u00e7ok g\u00fcvercin tondaki \u201csabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da \u015fimdilik sterlin i\u00e7in en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, sert bir ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskinin piyasa taraf\u0131ndan yeterince fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Son veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %5,7 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve hizmet enflasyonunun man\u015fet t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel bask\u0131 \u015fahin oylar\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirirken, beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelecek herhangi bir ekonomik veri Banka\u2019y\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabilir ve bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda net bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor; zay\u0131f ekonomi ile kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin volatiliteyi art\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel. GBP\/USD i\u00e7in ima edilen volatilite, \u00f6zellikle Banka\u2019n\u0131n ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerine ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131k uyar\u0131s\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 tam olarak yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketine pozisyon almak amac\u0131yla straddle gibi enstr\u00fcmanlar \u00fczerinden volatilite sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f resimde, nisan ay\u0131ndaki yatay\/negatif GSYH verisi, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde i\u015faret edilen ekonomik yorgunlu\u011fu teyit ediyor. Bu durum, BoE\u2019nin hafif yukar\u0131 revize etti\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminiyle \u00e7eli\u015ferek ekonominin ger\u00e7ek durumuna dair belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Resmi tahminlerle anl\u0131k veriler aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, daha y\u00fcksek ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck volatilite \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekleyen ek bir risk katman\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, enflasyon verilerinin beklenenden yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde BoE\u2019nin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; 2022-2023\u2019teki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc buna \u00f6rnek. O d\u00f6nem, k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131lar\u0131ndansa enflasyon kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceleme iradesini net bi\u00e7imde ortaya koymu\u015ftu. Bu nedenle kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fcvercin duru\u015fa fazla rahat yakla\u015fmamak gerekir; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip ve temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu, 7-2 oylamayla \u015fahin ayr\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrerken sterlin 1,3215\u2019e geriledi. Enflasyon patikas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ancak \u00fccret\/hizmet bask\u0131s\u0131 ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski yarat\u0131yor; volatilite al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49116\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}