\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (MPC), beklentilerle uyumlu \u015fekilde politika faizini (Bank Rate) art\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131 ve enflasyonu hedefe geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Karar, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgede tutarken, y\u00f6nlendirme enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve daha geni\u015f ekonomik ko\u015fullar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fekillendirildi. Piyasalar hamleyi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki b\u00f6l\u00fcnme, komite i\u00e7inde ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ne h\u0131zla gidilece\u011fi konusunda s\u00fcregelen tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na paralel olarak BoE, politika kararlar\u0131nda mevcut \u00e7er\u00e7eveye ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineleyerek, bundan sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 enflasyon, \u00fccretler ve ekonomik aktiviteye ili\u015fkin gelecek verilere ba\u011flad\u0131. MPC i\u00e7indeki ayr\u0131\u015fma, yurt i\u00e7i enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerine ili\u015fkin farkl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeleri yans\u0131t\u0131rken, karar\u0131n kendisi merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde fiyat istikrar\u0131 ile ekonomik ivme aras\u0131ndaki dengeyi g\u00f6zeten yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla uyumlu kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131 piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan tamamen bekleniyordu. Bu da sterlin ve giltlerde ilk fiyat hareketinin muhtemelen bug\u00fcnden \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnlerde zaten ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin, etkinlik riskinin art\u0131k geride kalmas\u0131yla birlikte d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re bu art\u0131\u015f gerekliydi; zira Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019si, son veride inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,8 seviyesinde kalarak yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da %5,5 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, Banka\u2019ya s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda fazla se\u00e7enek b\u0131rakmad\u0131. Bu veriler, politikan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte s\u0131k\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak bizim i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli detay 7-2\u2019lik oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131. \u00c7o\u011funluk \u015fahin kalmaya devam ederken, iki \u00fcyenin faizi sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kar\u015f\u0131 oyu komitenin tepe faize yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn biti\u015finin yaln\u0131zca bir ya da iki toplant\u0131 uza\u011f\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi sinyalini veriyor.<\/p>\n
Pozisyonlanmada SONIA vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frisine bak\u0131yoruz. En yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar bug\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131\u015fla \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f kalabilir; ancak alt\u0131 ila dokuz ay vadeli kontratlarda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu daha uzun vadeli vadeli i\u015flemler, 2027\u2019nin ba\u015flar\u0131nda olas\u0131 faiz indirim ihtimalini tam olarak fiyatl\u0131yor olmayabilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin taraf\u0131nda dinamik art\u0131k \u201chaberi sat\u201d (sell the fact) \u015feklinde; daha agresif bir ileri y\u00f6nlendirme gelmemesi, ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenme i\u00e7in bir kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn ortadan kalkmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Tarihsel olarak GBP\/USD, fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda s\u0131kl\u0131kla yataylar; 2022-2023 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc boyunca bunun bir\u00e7ok \u00f6rne\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda ise bu kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 FTSE 100 i\u00e7in bir bask\u0131 unsuru. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sterlin, endeksteki b\u00fcy\u00fck uluslararas\u0131 gelirli \u015firketleri olumsuz etkilerken, daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri de yurt i\u00e7i \u015firketler \u00fczerinde y\u00fck olu\u015fturuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda FTSE vadeli i\u015flemlerinde temkinli ila negatif bir duru\u015fu koruyaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE beklendi\u011fi gibi faizi art\u0131rd\u0131; ancak 7-2\u2019lik b\u00f6l\u00fcnme tepe faize yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalini veriyor. T\u00dcFE %3,8 ve \u00fccretler %5,5 ile \u015fahin duru\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; sterlinde \u201chaberi sat\u201d, FTSE\u2019de bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49112\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}