\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politika faizini piyasa beklentilerine paralel \u015fekilde %3,75 seviyesinde sabit tuttu. Karar, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n referans bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rakarak mevcut parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamada %3,75\u2019lik faiz seviyesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ilave tablo ya da y\u00f6nlendirme yer almad\u0131; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na, enflasyon tahminlerine veya gelecekteki politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ek say\u0131sal ayr\u0131nt\u0131 sunulmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n Bank Rate\u2019i %5,25\u2019te sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n tam olarak beklendi\u011fi gibi gelmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131kta bir gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik, oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 anl\u0131k karardan ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeye ve yakla\u015fan veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na kayd\u0131r\u0131yor. Stratejimiz, piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ziyade zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortama g\u00f6re pozisyon almak.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun %2,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son verilere yak\u0131ndan bak\u0131yoruz; bu olumlu bir i\u015faret olsa da h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2 hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ortalama haftal\u0131k kazan\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,5 ile y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu durum politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir \u00e7eli\u015fki yarat\u0131yor ve bizim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re yaz boyunca bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu destekliyor. Bu da, endeksin muhtemelen yatay bir bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde prim toplamak amac\u0131yla FTSE 100\u2019de para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) opsiyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131nda Bank Rate\u2019in %3,75 oldu\u011fu ve piyasan\u0131n sadece daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin adeta ayna g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc. O d\u00f6neme ait tarihsel veriler, tepe faizin fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan uzun vadeli gilt\u2019lerin daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Biz de benzer bir dinamik i\u00e7in, faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc nihayet ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin uzun vadelilere k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015ftirici (steepener) pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kur taraf\u0131nda, sterlin; ECB gibi emsal merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek faiz avantaj\u0131yla destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. En g\u00fcncel CFTC verileri, sterlinde spek\u00fclatif net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n son bir ayda %8 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Euro\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli sterlin uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 opsiyonlarla kademeli kuraca\u011f\u0131z; ancak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinde zay\u0131flama i\u015faretleri belirirse s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri devrede olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE faizi sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131; s\u00fcrpriz yok, fiyatlamalar rotay\u0131 de\u011fil zamanlamay\u0131 tart\u0131yor. Enflasyon gerilese de \u00fccretler y\u00fcksek. FTSE\u2019de prim toplama, getiri e\u011frisi steepener ve sterlinde temkinli uzun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}