Societe Generale\u2019den Kit Juckes, EUR\/USD\u2019nin neredeyse Dolar Endeksi ile e\u015f zamanl\u0131 hareket etti\u011fini, paritenin Ba\u015fkan Trump d\u00f6nemindeki Dolar\u2019daki \u00f6nceki zay\u0131fl\u0131kla ve g\u00f6reli faiz oranlar\u0131yla yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ba\u011fla ili\u015fkilendi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Juckes ayr\u0131ca, Dolar 12 ay\u0131n zirvelerini test ederken EUR\/USD\u2019deki son seyrin inat\u00e7\u0131 ABD enflasyonu, diren\u00e7li b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve daha az g\u00fcvercin bir FOMC\u2019yi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Juckes, Dolar\u2019\u0131n daha \u00f6nce ekonomik ve para politikas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha zay\u0131f i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6reli faizlerle kademeli olarak yeniden e\u015fle\u015fti\u011fini savunuyor. Ayr\u0131ca, son kayman\u0131n enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin FOMC\u2019yi ve yeni Ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131 beklenenden daha az g\u00fcvercin bir mesaja itti\u011fini; Societe Generale ekonomistlerinin temel senaryosunun ise Fed faizlerinin bu y\u0131l boyunca sabit kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Makale, yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda EUR\/USD\u2019nin Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin neredeyse aynas\u0131 gibi davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; dolar\u0131n de\u011feri, g\u00f6reli faiz oranlar\u0131yla bir kez daha yeniden e\u015fle\u015fiyor. Bu dinamik, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc besliyor. Bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki, piyasalar\u0131n k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlat\u0131lar\u0131na daha fazla odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemden bir sapmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, son May\u0131s raporunda beklenmedik \u015fekilde %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselen inat\u00e7\u0131 ABD enflasyon verilerine ve %2,2\u2019lik diren\u00e7li 1\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine do\u011frudan bir yan\u0131t niteli\u011finde. Federal Rezerv, o tarihten bu yana bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha az g\u00fcvercin bir mesaj verdi ve bu da Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 106,50 civar\u0131ndaki zirveleri test etmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Temel senaryonun art\u0131k Fed faizlerinin y\u0131l sonuna kadar sabit kalmas\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD paritesi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,0550 b\u00f6lgesini test ediyor ve 1,0500 psikolojik seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin gerilemesinden ya da yatay bantta kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejileri\u2014put al\u0131m\u0131 veya call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi\u2014bu ortam i\u00e7in uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn yak\u0131n zamanda 6.100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen hisse piyasas\u0131 nedeniyle art\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en ay politika faizini indirme karar\u0131, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 dolar lehine daha da a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011finin bask\u0131n tema oldu\u011fu 2022\u2019deki dolar\u0131n uzun soluklu rallisini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada g\u00f6zler Dolar\u2019da: SocGen\u2019e g\u00f6re EUR\/USD, Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni ad\u0131m ad\u0131m izliyor. \u0130nat\u00e7\u0131 ABD enflasyonu, diren\u00e7li b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve daha az g\u00fcvercin Fed, faizleri sabit tutup pariteyi 1,05\u2019e itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49110"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49110\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}