Brown Brothers Harriman, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da %0,00 seviyesinde tuttu\u011funu ve sonucu \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d bir bekle-g\u00f6r ad\u0131m\u0131 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi\u011fini belirtti. Kurum, SNB\u2019nin 2027 1. \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar enflasyon tahminlerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti\u011fini, ancak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin bankan\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bu durumun da faizlerin bir s\u00fcre daha de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131na alan tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, bu politika duru\u015funun \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam edebilece\u011fi eklendi. T\u00fcrev fiyatlamalar\u0131nda swap e\u011frisinin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde politika faizini %0,25\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olarak ima etti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %0,00\u2019da tutma karar\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %2,5 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi %3,0 seviyesindeyken daha da belirginle\u015fiyor. Artan getiri fark\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fczerinden CHF\u2019de ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131 en ihtiyatl\u0131 strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/CHF ve USD\/CHF gibi paritelerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemimize al\u0131yoruz. Bu paritelerde son d\u00f6nemde %5-6 band\u0131nda seyreden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima edilen volatilite, s\u00f6z konusu opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, carry trade stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in de elveri\u015fli; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, s\u0131f\u0131r getiri sunan frang\u0131 satarak daha y\u00fcksek getirili para birimlerinde pozisyon finanse edebilir. Swap piyasas\u0131nda olu\u015fan istikrarl\u0131 forward puanlar\u0131 da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve d\u00fczenli bir pozitif carry kayna\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak, bu kadar net politika ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 2000\u2019lerin ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere kal\u0131c\u0131 trendleri besleyebiliyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olmak gerekiyor; jeopolitik gerilimler g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek frang\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. SNB, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte CHF\u2019yi zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahalelerde bulundu; bir d\u00f6nem d\u00f6viz rezervleri 900 milyar CHF\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bankan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc franga tolerans\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015fan \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyon verilerini izlemeleri \u00f6nemli; son %1,4\u2019l\u00fck okuma, SNB\u2019nin n\u00f6tr duru\u015funu de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek s\u00fcrpriz bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sapma i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SNB faizi d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc kez %0\u2019da b\u0131rakt\u0131; BBH karar\u0131 n\u00f6tr \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d okuyor. Enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fckselse de hedef alt\u0131nda. Getiri fark\u0131 CHF\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; 25 bp art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49109\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}