Rabobank, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iki y\u00f6nden \u00e7ekildi\u011fini belirtiyor: Orta Do\u011fu riskine ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politikas\u0131 beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131. Banka, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin iyile\u015fmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimalinin, USD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik savunmac\u0131 giri\u015fleri zay\u0131flatabilecek geli\u015fmeler oldu\u011funu vurgularken; yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u0131n beklentilerden daha \u015fahin tondaki mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n dolara destek verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Rabobank, bu iki itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn d\u00fcn g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde \u00e7arp\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in politika toplant\u0131s\u0131yla hemen hemen ayn\u0131 zamanlarda gelmesi; ayr\u0131ca DXY dolar endeksinin bu sabah daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ekip, sava\u015f\u0131n ilk d\u00f6nemindeki dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak nitelendiriyor; ancak Nisan 2025\u2019te Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hem dolar\u0131n hem de ABD Hazine tahvillerinin gerilemesiyle bu stat\u00fcn\u00fcn sorguland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak Rabobank, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin t\u00f6rp\u00fclenmesi halinde USD i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydediyor ve bu y\u0131l faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 baz senaryosunu yineliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k vadede yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fc, temel dinamiklerden ziyade yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin tonundan besleniyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasan\u0131n, alttaki ekonomik verilerin desteklemeyebilece\u011fi faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayarak erken davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, piyasa beklentileri ile y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in sabit faiz ortam\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ait son enflasyon verileriyle de destekleniyor: \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,4\u2019e gerilemesi, Fed\u2019in agresif hareket etme aciliyetini azalt\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca en son istihdam raporu, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131z kesti ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Bunlar, Fed\u2019i h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne zorlayacak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f bir ekonominin i\u015faretleri de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsata i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda DXY dolar endeksi \u00fczerine put opsiyonlar\u0131nda veya AUD\/USD gibi paritelerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yakla\u015fan verilerin so\u011fuma e\u011filimini teyit etmesi ve Fed beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 bir dolar gerilemesine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli \u015fekilde pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daha do\u011frudan i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik bir di\u011fer yol ise faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar en az bir kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu sonucun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fine oynayan pozisyonlar, piyasan\u0131n daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir Fed \u00e7izgisine hizalanmas\u0131yla k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, piyasan\u0131n Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nden fiyatlay\u0131p ard\u0131ndan hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer \u00f6rnekler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Jeopolitik \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u2014\u00f6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019la gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131\u2014 dolar\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvenli liman talebini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu da para birimini daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor ve yaln\u0131zca hatal\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz faiz beklentilerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar iki ate\u015f aras\u0131nda: Orta Do\u011fu riski g\u00fcvenli liman talebini, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahinli\u011fi faiz fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. \u0130ran\u2019la yumu\u015fama USD\u2019yi zay\u0131flatabilir; Rabobank put f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}