Hindistan rupisi, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemenin ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 hafifletece\u011fine i\u015faret etmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. USD\/INR ise, BBC\u2019nin Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n Donald Trump ile \u0130ran\u2019dan Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD-\u0130srail sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck imzalanan \u00f6n mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti\u011fini aktarmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gev\u015fedi; bu geli\u015fme, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Ancak piyasalar, daha s\u0131k\u0131 ABD para politikas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: Fed\u2019in Haziran projeksiyonlar\u0131, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi politika faizini oybirli\u011fiyle %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutsa da, FOMC \u00fcyelerinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131, ge\u00e7ici ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Hindistan hisseleri Fed karar\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filiminin etkisiyle geriledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k-Hindistan serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131nda devreye alaca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7elik tarifesi rejimine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan 15 Temmuz\u2019da y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi bekleniyor. Sabit getirili piyasalarda ise RBI, yerel devlet tahvillerinin Euroclear \u00fczerinden offshore takas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek i\u015flemlerin yurt i\u00e7indeki NDS-OM platformu \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesini tercih ediyor. USD\/INR 94,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 94,84 ve 94,73 seviyelerindeki 9 ve 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 40\u2019a yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede Rupinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etmesi nedeniyle, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 WTI fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son gerileme \u00fclkenin ithalat faturas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde azaltacakt\u0131r. Bu temeldeki iyile\u015fme, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Rupiyi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun, \u00f6zellikle kritik 94,00 destek seviyesini test ederken devam edecek alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Stratejimiz, vadeli kontratlarda sat\u0131\u015f veya put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 yoluyla paritede k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 tercih etmek y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Fiyat\u0131n kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 da bu k\u0131sa vadeli negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu nedeniyle temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. Piyasa bu y\u0131l en az bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatlarken, ABD enflasyonu veya istihdam verilerinde gelebilecek herhangi bir s\u00fcrpriz ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda sert bir ters harekete yol a\u00e7abilir. ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 ihtimali, genellikle geli\u015fen piyasalardan sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik eder.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmac\u0131 Fed aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor ve volatiliteyi art\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu nedenle, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol maliyetlerinin olumlu etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
15 Temmuz\u2019da ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenen yeni Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k-Hindistan ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 olumlu bir arka plan unsuru olsa da, yak\u0131n vadede ana belirleyici olmas\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Benzer \u015fekilde, RBI\u2019nin devlet tahvili takas\u0131n\u0131 yurt i\u00e7inde tutma karar\u0131 kontrol iste\u011fine i\u015faret etse de, ana makro hik\u00e2yeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. Odak noktas\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile ABD para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkile\u015fimi olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc rupi i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 arkaya ald\u0131: USD\/INR, ABD-\u0130ran \u00f6n mutabakat\u0131yla gev\u015fedi. Ancak Fed\u2019in \u015fahin projeksiyonlar\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor; 94,00 deste\u011fi kritik, k\u0131sa pozisyon\/opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49107\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}