\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), politika faizini beklentilere paralel olarak %0 seviyesinde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Karar, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin s\u0131f\u0131r alt s\u0131n\u0131rdaki duru\u015funu korurken; merkez bankas\u0131 yurt i\u00e7i ko\u015fullar\u0131 izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken mevcut faiz \u00e7er\u00e7evesini de oldu\u011fu gibi b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ad\u0131m at\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 zaten fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve %0\u2019daki \u00e7\u0131pa, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) fonlama maliyetlerini sabitlemeye devam ediyor. Faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131yla birlikte odak, SNB\u2019nin man\u015fet politika ayar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden enflasyon ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in ara\u00e7 setini nas\u0131l kalibre edece\u011fine kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
SNB\u2019nin faizi %0\u2019da tutma karar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekleniyordu; bu nedenle frangda k\u0131sa vadede belirgin bir oynakl\u0131k beklemiyoruz. T\u00fcrevler taraf\u0131nda as\u0131l hik\u00e2ye ise EUR\/CHF gibi paritelerde k\u0131sa vadeli ima edilen volatilitedeki (implied volatility) sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Etkinlik riskinin geride kalmas\u0131yla piyasa, oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli trendlere \u00e7evirecek.<\/p>\n
Ana f\u0131rsat\u0131, geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Fed yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken ECB %3,0 seviyesinde. Bu durum, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131 orta vadede carry trade i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in cazip bir fonlama para birimi haline getiriyor. Frang\u0131n, daha y\u00fcksek getirili para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejiler giderek daha \u00e7ekici g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,2 etraf\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131pal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve SNB\u2019nin hedefi i\u00e7inde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda g\u00fcvercin (dovish) \u00e7izgiyi de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak SNB, frang\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde faiz indirimine gidebilen bir kurum; bu duru\u015fta bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, frangda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilitenin (realized volatility) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabilece\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor. Aral\u0131k i\u00e7inde dalgalanma beklentimizden yararlanarak USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir. SNB\u2019nin de\u011ferlendirmeleri frang\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc konusunda temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale edebileceklerine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik temel risk, k\u00fcresel ticaret gerilimleri s\u00fcrerken frang\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d niteli\u011finin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131. 2022 enerji krizinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcze benzer bir g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, CHF\u2019de sert bir de\u011ferlenmeye yol a\u00e7arak carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ac\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6zebilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131, frang \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SNB faizi beklendi\u011fi gibi %0\u2019da tuttu; CHF fonlama \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 korunurken k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/CHF ima volatilitesi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fed-ECB faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; risk g\u00fcvenli liman CHF.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49099\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}