Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan \u00fccret al\u0131nmadan ge\u00e7i\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla rahatlamas\u0131yla per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc bir miktar geriledi. ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc West Texas Intermediate (WTI) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 73,36 dolarla \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve haftay\u0131 %10\u2019dan fazla kay\u0131pla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fransa\u2019da ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile Tahran aras\u0131nda imzalanan anla\u015fma; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda muafiyetler, dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran fonlar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f hasar\u0131n\u0131 gidermek i\u00e7in 300 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir yeniden imar fonu h\u00fck\u00fcmlerini i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD ve \u0130ranl\u0131 temsilciler aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc B\u00fcrgenstock tatil beldesinde s\u00fcrece\u011fini ve m\u00fczakerelerin uygulama a\u015famas\u0131na do\u011fru ilerlemesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), 12 Haziran ile biten haftada ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 8,26 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; beklenti 4,6 milyon varillik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. EIA, bunun art arda onuncu haftal\u0131k gerileme oldu\u011funu ve stoklar\u0131 40 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indirdi\u011fini belirtirken, fiyatlar buna s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n art\u0131k \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlamas\u0131yla, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, y\u0131llard\u0131r fiyatlara g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc olan \u00f6nemli bir jeopolitik primi ortadan kald\u0131ran ciddi bir \u201crisk azalt\u0131c\u0131\u201d geli\u015fme. Tarihsel olarak 2015 tarihli JCPOA anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, piyasan\u0131n yeni arz\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 izleyen alt\u0131 ayda %30\u2019dan fazla gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm do\u011frultusunda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada olas\u0131 ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n sert tepkisi, z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle pozisyonlara giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in put spread stratejilerini de inceliyoruz. Hedefimiz 70 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri; zira \u0130ran varillerinin tam d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, aylar i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel arza g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ABD stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 40 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz. Bu temel s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k, ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nin (SPR) de yakla\u015f\u0131k 370 milyon varille 40 y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n seyretmesi nedeniyle daha da \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Piyasa \u015fu anda bu y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u015faretini jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 lehine g\u00f6rmezden gelmeyi tercih ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kopukluk, odak yeniden fiziki piyasaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde daha uzun vadeli cazip bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Spot fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle \u015fu anda ucuzlayan, vadesi \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 ay sonras\u0131 olan \u201czarar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 gecikirse veya talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ederse, bu pozisyonlar kayda de\u011fer getiriler sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Yaz d\u00f6nemi talep e\u011filimleri de bu temel y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu destekliyor; zira t\u00fcketim genellikle yo\u011fun s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonunda artar. \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019dan gelen son sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri verilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel talebin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da zaten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan stoklar\u0131n daha da erimesine yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Bu temel bask\u0131n\u0131n eninde sonunda fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131 gerekecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde alarm zili: ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f beklentisi WTI\u2019\u0131 73,36 dolarla 3 ay\u0131n dibine itti. \u0130ran arz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beslerken, rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar orta vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f opsiyonu yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49098"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49098\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}