Japon yeni, \u00f6nceki seansta %0,14 geriledikten sonra genel olarak yatay seyretti; bu hareket pariteyi dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 160,65 ile 2024 sonras\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu hamle, g\u00fcn\u00fc yen a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zay\u0131f kapatt\u0131rsa da G10 sepetinin di\u011fer \u00fcyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha sert sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 olmadan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc; yenin nisan sonlar\u0131nda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyen seviyelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesine ba\u011flad\u0131. Piyasa, yeniden resmi m\u00fcdahale riskini \u00f6l\u00e7erken fiyatlaman\u0131n da frenlendi\u011fi belirtiliyor. \u00d6te yandan y\u00fcksek ABD tahvil getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in arka plan\u0131 belirlemeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 160,65 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in piyasalar y\u00fcksek alarm durumunda. Bu seviye, Nisan 2024\u2019te Japon yetkililerin do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesine ba\u015fvurmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik \u00f6nemde. Temel bask\u0131 yen \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor; faiz fark\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015f. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirileri yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,25 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, Japon devlet tahvilleri %1,0 seviyesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; zira yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar sert bir hareket bekliyor ancak y\u00f6n ve zamanlama konusunda emin de\u011fil. USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilitenin %10,5\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu oran, sadece ge\u00e7en ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen %8 band\u0131na k\u0131yasla dikkat \u00e7ekici bir art\u0131\u015f. Bu da piyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani ve sert bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ola\u011fan\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle volatilite sat\u0131n alman\u0131n \u015fu anda en temkinli strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 i\u00e7eren uzun straddle etkili olabilir. Bu pozisyon, Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) m\u00fcdahale ederek yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi ya da m\u00fcdahale gelmemesi halinde paritenin 163\u2019e do\u011fru zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin verilmesi gibi, iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nsel beklentisi olan ve m\u00fcdahalenin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu almak, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle faydalanman\u0131n bir yolunu sunar. Carry trade cazibesini koruyor; ancak m\u00fcdahaleyle 3-5 yenlik ani bir ters hareket riski varken spot pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak riskli. Opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 tan\u0131mlamaya ve s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Straddle veya strangle k\u0131sa pozisyonu gibi volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7eren stratejileri \u00f6nermiyoruz. Toplanan prim cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek s\u00fcrpriz bir hamlede s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z zarar potansiyeli \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Maliye Bakan\u0131 \u015euni\u00e7i Suzuki\u2019nin kur hareketlerini \u201cy\u00fcksek bir aciliyet duygusuyla\u201d izlediklerine dair son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, rehavete kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir uyar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen 160,65\u2019te 2024 sonras\u0131 dipte; m\u00fcdahale g\u00f6lgesi fiyatlamay\u0131 frenliyor. ABD getirileri\/dolar bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %10,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Straddle \u00f6nerisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49096"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49096\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}