Sterlin, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ancak bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye yak\u0131n seyretti. \u0130ngiltere istihdam verileri, piyasalar\u0131n yeni pozisyonlanmada temkinli kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sterline s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verdi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, nisan ay\u0131na kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde %5\u2019ten %4,9\u2019a gerilerken, net istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nceki 148 binin ard\u0131ndan 100 bin oldu; buna kar\u015f\u0131n 80 binlik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu: ikramiyeler hari\u00e7 ortalama kazan\u00e7lar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4 ile sabit kalarak %3,2\u2019lik tahminin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; ikramiyeler dahil \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da %4,4\u2019te yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin, may\u0131s enflasyonunun yatay seyretmesinin ard\u0131ndan Banka Faizi\u2019ni %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ise kal\u0131c\u0131 bir enerji \u015foku beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. ABD\u2019de Federal Rezerv, Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir pas ge\u00e7erek politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve gev\u015feme e\u011filimine i\u015faret eden ifadeyi \u00e7\u0131kararak metni k\u0131saltt\u0131. Fed, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 belirsizlik s\u00fcrse de faaliyet ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye dikkat \u00e7ekti; nokta grafi\u011fi (dot plot) yetkililerin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselirken dolar g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 18 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla, \u0130ngiliz sterlininin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve son dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu temkinli hava, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n BoE\u2019nin yakla\u015fan politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Piyasada a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k hissi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve y\u00fckseli\u015f denemeleri sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Destekleyici olmas\u0131 beklenen haberlere ra\u011fmen sterlindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k devam ediyor. Son veriler, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %5,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu seviye, enflasyon endi\u015felerini merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde \u00fcst s\u0131rada tutuyor. B\u00f6ylece \u00fccretlerdeki \u201ciyi haber\u201d, faiz indirimi beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc haber\u201de d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek zor bir denge yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika duru\u015funu gev\u015fetmekte aceleci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da dolar\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de enflasyonun %3,1 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 ve Fed yetkililerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Politikadaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, sermayeyi sterlin yerine dolara y\u00f6nlendiren temel unsur konumunda.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ya da yatay oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in sterlinde put opsiyonu almak, \u00f6zellikle BoE\u2019nin beklenenden daha g\u00fcvercin bir ton vermesi halinde, ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli bir y\u00f6ntem sunar. Bu strateji, kurun gerilemesinden fayda sa\u011flarken, s\u00fcrpriz bir ralli g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, merkez bankas\u0131 duyurusu \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselen z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility) da izliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak GBP\/USD, Eyl\u00fcl 2022\u2019de 1,03\u2019e do\u011fru ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gibi sert hareketler sergileyerek paritenin ani d\u00fczeltmelere a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, duyuru sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne (volatility crush) kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken giri\u015f maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in put spread gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iki ayl\u0131k dipten s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131; istihdam ve \u00fccret verileri destek verdi. G\u00f6zler BoE\u2019de faizin %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u015eahin Fed ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49093\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}