\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin ithalat\u0131 may\u0131sta hafif gerileyerek bir \u00f6nceki aydaki 19.188 milyon seviyesinden 19.018 milyona indi. Ayl\u0131k bazdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde \u00fclkeye giren mallara y\u00f6nelik talepte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veri, nisan ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla 170 milyonluk azal\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Ek bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131; ancak bu de\u011fi\u015fim, may\u0131s toplam ithalat\u0131n\u0131 19,1 milyar seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki \u0130svi\u00e7re ithalat\u0131ndaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f her ne kadar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa da, \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomisinde i\u00e7 talebin so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenen etkiyi g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair erken bir g\u00f6sterge oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yava\u015flama, yak\u0131n vadede ilave agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, SNB\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini sabit tutabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; s\u00f6z konusu beklenti \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019ndaki son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye de \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r getirebilir. Bu nedenle, bant hareketinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla CHF\/EUR paritesinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) satmaya odaklanarak kur t\u00fcrevi stratejilerimizi g\u00fcncelliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak SNB, ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc korumak ad\u0131na i\u00e7 yava\u015flaman\u0131n ilk sinyallerinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara verme konusunda h\u0131zl\u0131 davranm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Almanya gibi \u00f6nemli ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik durgunluk i\u015faretleri verdi\u011fi Avrupa genelindeki daha geni\u015f e\u011filimlerle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Almanya\u2019da son a\u00e7\u0131klanan fabrika sipari\u015fleri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalarak ge\u00e7en ay %0,2 geriledi; bu durum tedarik zinciri \u00fczerinden \u0130svi\u00e7re mallar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik arz ve talebi do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Bu d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomisine ili\u015fkin daha temkinli bir duru\u015fu ayr\u0131ca destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Piyasa Endeksi (SMI) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bunu daha defansif bir pozisyonlanma i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimde yava\u015flama \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir. \u0130\u00e7 pazara y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 t\u00fcketim-d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel (consumer-cyclical) hisselerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. SMI y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 y\u00fckselmi\u015fken, zay\u0131flayan temel verilerle birlikte bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planda, hem \u0130svi\u00e7re hisselerinde hem de Frank\u2019ta opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VSMI) 12 ayl\u0131k diplerine yak\u0131n 11,5 seviyesinde seyretti\u011fi mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131, volatiliteyi g\u00f6rece ucuzdan alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor. \u00d6nc\u00fc SMI bile\u015fenlerinin ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde uzun straddle pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 inceliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130svi\u00e7re ithalat\u0131 may\u0131sta 19,188 milyardan 19,018 milyara inerek i\u00e7 talepte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 so\u011fuma sinyali verdi. SNB\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131, CHF\u2019de yatay seyir ve SMI\u2019da savunmac\u0131\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49090\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}