Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u201cclaimant count\u201d oran\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00f6nceki %4,4 seviyesinden %4,5\u2019e hafif y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, ay boyunca i\u015fsizlikle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yard\u0131mlara ba\u015fvuranlar\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veri, bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla 0,1 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ifade ediyor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131p\u0131rdanma, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yumu\u015famaya dair bulgular\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta claimant count oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda yumu\u015faman\u0131n net bir sinyali olarak not ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte ekonominin yaln\u0131zca %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren son GSYH verileriyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, bu veri noktas\u0131 Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu e\u011filim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019a duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn gerekli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f istihdam verisi, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelme bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratabilir. Enflasyonun son okumada %2,5\u2019e gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131yla birlikte, y\u0131l bitmeden faiz indirimi ihtimalini destekleyen arg\u00fcmanlar g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, gelecekte daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 senaryosuna konumlanarak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha erken faiz indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Sterlin\u2019i daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n beklemede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 GBP\u2019nin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle, 2025 sonlar\u0131ndan gelen \u00f6nemli bir destek b\u00f6lgesi olan 1,24 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda zay\u0131flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda azalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder; bu da \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lar. FTSE 100\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha fazla i\u00e7 pazara duyarl\u0131 olan FTSE 250 endeksi, bu yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Bu nedenle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in FTSE 250 endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon olu\u015fturuyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak claimant count\u2019taki art\u0131\u015f\u2014m\u00fctevaz\u0131 olsa bile\u2014\u00e7o\u011fu zaman ekonomik aktivitede zay\u0131flaman\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor. Piyasa belirsizli\u011fi de art\u0131yor; FTSE 100 opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite iki ay sonra ilk kez 15 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ortam, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayan veya do\u011frudan bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften getiri hedefleyen stratejileri destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz sinyal: BK claimant count May\u0131s\u2019ta %4,4\u2019ten %4,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda yumu\u015fama b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015fesini art\u0131r\u0131yor; BoE\u2019de faiz indirimi beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, sterlin zay\u0131flayabilir, Gilt\u2019ler destek bulabilir. FTSE 250 riskli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49089\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}