\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ILO i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019ne (ONS) g\u00f6re Nisan\u2019a kadarki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda %5,0\u2019ten %4,9\u2019a gerileyerek %5,0\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Claimant Count Change (ba\u015fvuran say\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim) 31,2 bin artt\u0131; bu, Nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 revize edilen 8,3 binlik art\u0131\u015f ve 25,8 binlik beklentiyle k\u0131yasland\u0131. \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi (Employment Change) Nisan\u2019da Mart\u2019taki 148 binden 100 bine yava\u015flad\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n 80 binlik tahminin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. \u0130kramiye hari\u00e7 Ortalama Kazan\u00e7lar (Average Earnings excluding bonus) Nisan\u2019a kadarki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki veriyle ayn\u0131 kalarak %3,2\u2019lik tahmini a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130kramiye dahil Ortalama Kazan\u00e7lar (Average Earnings including bonus) ise daha \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde revize edilerek yine %4,4 olan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %4,4 y\u00fckseldi ve %4,0\u2019l\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc ge\u00e7ti. Verilerin ard\u0131ndan sterlin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; GBP\/USD g\u00fcni\u00e7i %0,14 art\u0131\u015fla 1,3310\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknik tarafta parite 20 periyot basit hareketli ortalama ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI-14) 40 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler 1,3305 destek; 1,3408, 1,3455 ve 1,3513 diren\u00e7 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda, ge\u00e7mi\u015f raporlarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kur hareketlerini s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemleri and\u0131ran tan\u0131d\u0131k bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu haftaki en g\u00fcncel ONS verileri i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviye olan %4,2\u2019de oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak ikramiyeler dahil \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %5,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor ve bu durum \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00fccret enflasyonu, BoE\u2019nin ilerleyen d\u00f6nemdeki patikas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in izledi\u011fimiz temel g\u00f6sterge. Ge\u00e7en ay claimant count 15,5 bin artsa da, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret verileri BoE\u2019nin yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimini g\u00fcndemine almas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunun, k\u0131sa vadede anlaml\u0131 bir parasal gev\u015feme ihtimalini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hafif yumu\u015fayan istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fcksek \u00fccret enflasyonunun olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. BoE\u2019nin veriye duyarl\u0131 duru\u015fu, bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na kadar yatay fiyat hareketlerine, ard\u0131ndan sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya yol a\u00e7abilir. Y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olas\u0131 bir volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda GBP\/USD 1,2750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, tarihsel veride g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,3310 seviyesinden olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 bir teknik tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Parite 1,2700 \u00e7evresinde destek buluyor, ancak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum zay\u0131f. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131, put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in bir sinyal olarak izleyerek 1,2600\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir sonraki T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) verisi olacak. Beklentinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda gelecek bir enflasyon verisi, BoE politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir ve sterlinde sert bir ralli tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimimize kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem olarak vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge ediyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de i\u015fsizlik %4,9\u2019a inerken \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; BoE\u2019nin faiz indirimi zorla\u015f\u0131yor. GBP\/USD s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, teknik zay\u0131f. Yatay-k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m senaryosunda straddle, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}