Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ILO i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Nisan\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda %4,9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu, %5,0\u2019l\u0131k beklentiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, verinin tahminlerin marjinal olarak alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Veri, Nisan\u2019da sona eren \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemi kaps\u0131yor ve ILO metodolojisiyle hesaplan\u0131yor. Beklenen orana k\u0131yasla 0,1 puanl\u0131k fark, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6stergesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden biraz daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,9 gelmesi, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret eden olumlu bir s\u00fcrpriz oldu. Ancak bu veri art\u0131k iki ay \u00f6ncesine ait ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamalara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Mevcut \u00e7eyre\u011fe girerken ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ivmeye sahip oldu\u011funu teyit eden bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi ise ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011fa dair bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc peki\u015ftiren daha g\u00fcncel verilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. \u0130ngiliz Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son verileri, May\u0131s\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %4,5\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi %2,8 ile yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hedefinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik ile kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu birle\u015fimi, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimini de\u011ferlendirmesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, faizlerin y\u0131l sonuna kadar mevcut seviyelerde kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Aral\u0131k vadeli SONIA kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak (Aral\u0131k SONIA vadeli i\u015flemlerini satmak) bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ifade etme yollar\u0131m\u0131zdan biri.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6zellikle merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin oldu\u011fu para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 sterlini destekliyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetmeye a\u00e7\u0131k sinyaller vermesiyle GBP\/USD paritesinin destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in sterlin \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda ise \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz ortam\u0131 FTSE 100 endeksi i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Tarihsel olarak dura\u011fan faizler ve y\u00fcksek \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler, \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 piyasa zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bir koruma (hedge) olarak endekste sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ILO i\u015fsizlik %4,9 ile beklenti alt\u0131. Ancak \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,5 ve T\u00dcFE %2,8 inat\u00e7\u0131; BoE indirimi zor. Aral\u0131k SONIA k\u0131sa, GBP\/USD call, FTSE put \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49087\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}