GBP\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye dokunduktan sonra toparland\u0131. Parite 1,3260 civar\u0131ndan y\u00fckselerek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hafif gerilemesiyle yeniden 1,3300 seviyesini geri ald\u0131. Dolardaki geri \u00e7ekilme; ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan aras\u0131nda, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sona erdirilmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik elektronik imzal\u0131 bir Mutabakat Muht\u0131ras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoU) ard\u0131ndan geldi. Trump ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin nihai anla\u015fma i\u00e7in tan\u0131nan 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakere s\u00fcresinin \u201ckesin bir son tarih\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim; Fed kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin dolar\u0131 mart sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\u2019de k\u00e2r realizasyonunu tetikledi. Ancak paritedeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn, zay\u0131f (ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc) temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce Sterlin, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin karar\u0131n\u0131n hareketi b\u00fcy\u00fctmesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girmi\u015fti. GBP\/USD 1,3400 civar\u0131nda seyrederken yakla\u015f\u0131k 140 pip gerileyerek 1,3350 ve 1,3300 seviyelerini k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, seans i\u00e7i dip olarak 1,3250 yak\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta may\u0131s T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %0,2 artt\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %2,7 tahmine kar\u015f\u0131 %2,6\u2019ya geriledi; man\u015fet y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon ise %2,8\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. Bu tablo, piyasalar\u0131n BoE faiz indirimi beklentilerini yeniden ayarlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019deki mevcut toparlanmay\u0131, temel trendde bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ziyade jeopolitik haberlere verilen ge\u00e7ici bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 1,3260 dibinden uzakla\u015fma, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmeden kaynaklan\u0131yor ve yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bir sinyal \u00fcretebilir. Bu k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz senaryoya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verilerinin beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sterlin\u2019deki altta yatan zay\u0131fl\u0131k net. Benzer bir durum 2023 sonlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f; beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen T\u00dcFE verileri, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz indirimlerini h\u0131zla fiyatlamas\u0131na neden olmu\u015f ve Sterlin\u2019i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,6\u2019ya gerilemesiyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasan\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin bir BoE beklentisine oynamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Tarih, politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; 2022\u2019de Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. S\u0131k\u0131 bir Fed ile gev\u015feme sinyalleri veren bir BoE aras\u0131ndaki bu devam eden kontrast\u0131n, GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1,3200 alt\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, paritenin mevcut kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri vermesi ve son iki ay\u0131n dip seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde getiri potansiyeli sunar. Put kullan\u0131m\u0131, \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir risk sa\u011flar; zira \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilitenin muhtemelen y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde bu daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 veya 1,3400 seviyesi civar\u0131nda ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 etkili bir strateji olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, zay\u0131f Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k temelleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar nedeniyle paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalan\u0131r. Paritenin yatay seyredece\u011fi ya da buradan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket edece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa, prim toplamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uygun bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD \u015fok dipten d\u00f6nd\u00fc: \u0130ran MoU sonras\u0131 dolar gev\u015fedi, parite 1,3300\u2019e toparland\u0131. Ancak zay\u0131f UK T\u00dcFE ve \u015fahin Fed, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; 1,3200 put\/ay\u0131 call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49085\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}