USD\/JPY, d\u00f6rt seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gerileyerek Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 160,60 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Parite, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn 160,80\u2019e dokunarak Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Japon yetkililer, piyasan\u0131n yenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve olas\u0131 ekonomik etkilerini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, kur hareketlerine \u201cher an\u201d yan\u0131t vermeye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
Parite, BBC\u2019nin ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD-\u0130srail sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen \u00f6n mutabakat niteli\u011finde bir anla\u015fma zapt\u0131 bulundu\u011funu bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan, azalan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimiyle ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n etkisiyle gev\u015fedi. Dolar taraf\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 ek zay\u0131flama ise Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentilerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131: Fed\u2019in Haziran Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti, FOMC \u00fcyelerinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Daha uzun vadeli yen dinamikleri, 2013-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki ultra gev\u015fek BoJ duru\u015fu, 2024\u2019te kademeli normalle\u015fmeye y\u00f6neli\u015f ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faiz fark\u0131ndaki hareketlerin \u015fekillendirdi\u011fi Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikas\u0131 ile ABD-Japonya getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 izlemeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 161,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, Japon otoritelerinden do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek alarm durumunday\u0131z. 2022\u2019deki m\u00fcdahalelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n harekete ge\u00e7mesi halinde 3-5 yenlik ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ihtimali olduk\u00e7a ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i. Bu nedenle, USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in makul bir stratejidir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut gerilim, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin de i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fczere belirgin bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Biz, straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi volatiliteden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilerin temkinli bir tercih oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira parite ister yukar\u0131 sert ta\u015fs\u0131n ister m\u00fcdahaleyle \u00e7\u00f6ks\u00fcn, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekette kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale riskine ra\u011fmen, faiz politikalar\u0131n\u0131n besledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel trendi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,25 seviyesinde bulunan ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi ile %1,0\u2019daki Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark olduk\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck. Bu temel makas, yen yerine ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 cazip k\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin son haberler ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme yaratm\u0131\u015f olsa da, bunu bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 civar\u0131nda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, dolar\u0131n temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn muhtemelen korunaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Siyasi geli\u015fmeler kaynakl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131, trendin nihayetinde yeniden devreye girmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmede bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler 161\u2019de: USD\/JPY 4 seansl\u0131k ralli sonras\u0131 160,60\u2019a gev\u015fedi. Japonya \u201cher an\u201d m\u00fcdahale sinyali veriyor; 3-5 yen \u015fok riski, %11+ implied vol ve put\/straddle talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49081\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}