AUD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131 Zay\u0131flarken ve RBA \u015eahin Duru\u015funu Korurken Toparland\u0131<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde hafif y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki seansta 0,7000\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti ve haftal\u0131k dip seviyeden toparland\u0131. Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,40 art\u0131\u015fla 0,7040 civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Mart sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyeden geri \u00e7ekildi; harekette, sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik artan iyimserli\u011fin etkili oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA), enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 halinde ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek \u015fahin e\u011filimini korurken, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, bu hafta 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) destek k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m noktas\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki tekrarlayan ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z denemeler e\u011filimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tuttu ve parite Mart\u2013May\u0131s y\u00fckseli\u015finin %50 d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri de zay\u0131f seyretti: G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 42 civar\u0131nda bulunurken, Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama Iraksama (MACD) hafif negatifti. Diren\u00e7, %50 d\u00fczeltmenin bulundu\u011fu 0,7054 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 0,7085 seviyesinde i\u015faretlendi; sonraki seviyeler 0,7106\u2019daki %38,2 Fibonacci ile 0,7171 civar\u0131ndaki %23,6 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Destekler ise 0,7002\u2019deki %61,8 Fibonacci noktas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan %78,6\u2019ya denk gelen 0,6928 ve \u00f6nceki dip b\u00f6lgesi olan 0,6834 civar\u0131 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,7000 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,7040\u2019a do\u011fru toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun ana nedeni, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flama; DXY, Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda 105,5 \u00fczerindeki zirvelerden 105,1 civar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ABD-\u0130ran diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin yeniden canlanan iyimserlikten kaynaklan\u0131yor ve \u015fimdilik dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131na destek veren bir di\u011fer unsur da RBA\u2019n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki \u015fahin tonu. En son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verilerinin enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,8 seviyesinde oldu\u011funu (RBA hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde) g\u00f6stermesiyle piyasa ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu temel bask\u0131, para birimi i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin beklentiler nedeniyle anlaml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son ABD istihdam raporu beklentilerden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi ve Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Nitekim CME FedWatch arac\u0131, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da ABD dolar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, bu hafta 0,7085 civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flanamamas\u0131n\u0131 negatif bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa baca\u011f\u0131 0,7085\u2019in \u00fczerinde olacak \u015fekilde \u201ccall spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu strateji, parite bu direncin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi s\u00fcrece getiri potansiyeli sunarken riski de tan\u0131mlar.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek kilit destek 0,7000 psikolojik seviyesi. Bunun alt\u0131nda net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde, 0,6928 civar\u0131ndaki bir sonraki destek b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyerek put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 veya k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel olarak 0,7000 gibi \u00f6nemli yuvarlak seviyelerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
0,7000 alt\u0131ndan d\u00f6nen AUD\/USD, zay\u0131flayan dolar ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131yla 0,7040\u2019a toparland\u0131. Ancak Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; 0,7054-0,7085 diren\u00e7, 0,7000 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,6928 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49073"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49073\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}