USD\/IDR, y\u00fckseli\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fuyla (bullish gap) a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gev\u015fedi ancak Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde Rupiah\u2019n\u0131n Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank Indonesia\/BI) politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde destek bulmas\u0131yla 17.880 civar\u0131nda pozitif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. Piyasalar, politika faizini %5,75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da ge\u00e7en haftaki s\u00fcrpriz 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Bir \u00f6nceki ad\u0131m, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun Nisan\u2019daki %2,42\u2019den May\u0131s\u2019ta %3,08\u2019e h\u0131zlanarak BI\u2019nin %1,5\u2013%3,5 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Paritedeki geri \u00e7ekilme, BBC\u2019nin Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump ile \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD-\u0130srail sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan \u00f6n mutabakat zapt\u0131 (memorandum of understanding) imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Dolar talebinin yumu\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 da yans\u0131tt\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu belge, daha \u00f6nce Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf\u2019\u0131n ilk \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi elektronik ortamda imzalamas\u0131n\u0131 takip etti. Ancak, Haziran Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti (SEP) FOMC \u00fcyelerinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse Dolar yeniden toparlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bank Indonesia bug\u00fcn toplan\u0131rken, beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Rupiah\u2019ya ge\u00e7ici bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. USD\/IDR\u2019nin 17.900\u2019e do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda bu agresif duru\u015f gerekli; bu seviye, 2020\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k 16.500 civar\u0131ndaki \u201cpanik zirvelerinin\u201d olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde. Enflasyondaki son s\u0131\u00e7rama (%3,08) merkez bankas\u0131na, para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in kararl\u0131 hareket etme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net bir yetki veriyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede bu durum, USD\/IDR\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. BI\u2019nin ge\u00e7en haftaki s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015fla taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fc net bi\u00e7imde ortaya koymas\u0131 sayesinde, Rupiah\u2019daki istikrardan fayda sa\u011flayan k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bununla birlikte, Rupiah\u2019daki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme temel trendde bir de\u011fi\u015fim de\u011fil, k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131na ili\u015fkin jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme yarat\u0131yor; ancak bunun ana belirleyiciden dikkat da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden geliyor; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar 2026\u2019da en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha i\u015faret ediyor. ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verileri, ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 200 binin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6stermeye devam ederek Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma tezini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemesi muhtemel temel bir gerilim yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler, sermayeyi geli\u015fen piyasalardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rarak Rupiah gibi para birimleri \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bank Indonesia Rupiah\u2019daki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatabilir; ancak tek ba\u015f\u0131na Fed\u2019in belirledi\u011fi trendi tersine \u00e7eviremez.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, BI kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 Rupiah g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini USD\/IDR\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1 ila 3 ay vadeli, 18.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerine hareketi hedefleyen USD\/IDR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD ekonomisinin temel g\u00fcc\u00fc, paritede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupiah, BI faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi 17.880\u2019de tutunuyor; piyasa %5,75\u2019e 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 Dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, \u015fahin Fed USD\/IDR\u2019de 18.000+ riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49071\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}