Sterlin, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun beklenenden yumu\u015fak gelmesi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm GBP\/USD paritesini sert \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Parite Fed \u00f6ncesinde 1,3400 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, sonras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 140 pip d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,3350 ve 1,3300 seviyelerini k\u0131rd\u0131 ve seans i\u00e7i dipte 1,3250 civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan 1,3300\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda dengelendi. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artarak %0,4 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %2,7 tahminine kar\u015f\u0131 %2,6\u2019ya gerilerken man\u015fet enflasyon %2,8\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen veriler \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz indirimi fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi ve Sterlin\u2019i ABD seans\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC), hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te oybirli\u011fiyle 12\u20130 ile sabit tuttu; Nisan\u2019daki 8\u20134 b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesinin aksine birlik g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc verdi ve gev\u015feme e\u011filimine i\u015faret eden bias\u2019\u0131 metinden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019nde (SEP) 2026 medyan politika faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,4\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi; 2026 PCE enflasyon tahmini de %2,7\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Bu revizyonlar beklentileri faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na do\u011fru iterken, CME FedWatch verileri Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ilk 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in fiyatl\u0131yor; ikinci art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in ise e\u011filim Ocak ay\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi 11:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak BoE karar\u0131nda; Bank Rate\u2019in %3,75\u2019te tutulmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131da bir \u00fcye art\u0131\u015fa destek verirken bu kez iki \u00fcyenin art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullan\u0131p kullanmayaca\u011f\u0131 izlenecek. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015flar takip edilecek. Teknik tarafta 1,3300 diren\u00e7; destekler 1,3250 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,3200 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
ABD ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k para politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve bu durum GBP\/USD paritesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoyu destekliyor. Zay\u0131flayan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu ile daha agresifle\u015fen Fed\u2019in birle\u015fimi, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu kurgu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler i\u00e7in dikkat \u00e7ekici bir zemin sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu yaln\u0131zca s\u00f6ylemden ibaret de\u011fil; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerle destekleniyor. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ait son ABD istihdam raporunda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 280 bin artarak beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; T\u00dcFE ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 ile diren\u00e7li seyrediyor. Bu tablo, piyasa beklentilerini peki\u015ftirirken CME FedWatch Arac\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi enflasyondaki yumu\u015fak okumay\u0131 da destekleyen bir \u201ct\u00f6kezleme\u201d sinyali veriyor. Son veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH\u2019sinin ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; May\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi ve bu da t\u00fcketicinin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, BoE\u2019nin benzer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde agresif bir duru\u015f benimsemesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak Sterlin \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019de Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na paralel g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere benzer \u015fekilde belirgin trendler ve artan volatiliteyle sonu\u00e7lanabiliyor. GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite yukar\u0131 k\u0131p\u0131rdad\u0131; bu da piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, beklenen harekete oynarken riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin kullan\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli.<\/p>\n
Negatif y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00f6nyarg\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 dikkate alarak, 1,3200 seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan maruz kalma sa\u011flarken olas\u0131 zararlar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. \u201cEn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7\u201d yolunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayanarak pozisyon almak i\u00e7in sade bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc BoE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli olas\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi bekleyenler i\u00e7in ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spread\u2019i (bear put spread) daha uygun olabilir. Bu yap\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satarak ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi i\u00e7erir. Ayr\u0131ca 1,3350 direncinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda, parite bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece gelir elde etmek amac\u0131yla para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede, g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki BoE oylama da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda gelebilecek olas\u0131 \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlerin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir ralli tetikleyip tetiklemeyece\u011fini izleyece\u011fiz. Bunun \u00f6tesinde, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve bir sonraki ABD PCE enflasyon raporu, bu trendin teyidi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak. Bu veri ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131, mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun yaz boyunca s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131: Zay\u0131f \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu ve \u015fahin Fed, GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3400\u2019dan 1,3250\u2019ye itti. BoE karar\u0131 kritik; 1,3300 diren\u00e7, 1,3250-1,3200 destek. Put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49063"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49063\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}