{"id":49060,"date":"2026-06-18T04:13:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:13:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/warsh-liderligindeki-fedin-sahinlesmesiyle-dolar-yukseldi-euro-ve-sterlin-geriledi-yen-zayifladi-altin-geri-cekildi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T04:13:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:13:13","slug":"warsh-liderligindeki-fedin-sahinlesmesiyle-dolar-yukseldi-euro-ve-sterlin-geriledi-yen-zayifladi-altin-geri-cekildi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/warsh-liderligindeki-fedin-sahinlesmesiyle-dolar-yukseldi-euro-ve-sterlin-geriledi-yen-zayifladi-altin-geri-cekildi\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsh liderli\u011findeki Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fmesiyle dolar y\u00fckseldi; euro ve sterlin geriledi, yen zay\u0131flad\u0131, alt\u0131n geri \u00e7ekildi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olarak ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 100,40\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. A\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cilave faiz ayarlamalar\u0131\u201d ifadesine yer verilmemesi, piyasalar\u0131 daha fazla veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir okuma y\u00f6n\u00fcne itti. Tahminlerde 2026 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi Mart\u2019taki %2,4\u2019e k\u0131yasla %2,2 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, uzun d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme %2,0\u2019da kald\u0131; nokta grafi\u011fi (dot plot) de yukar\u0131 kayarak medyan 2026 sonu federal fonlama oran\u0131n\u0131 %3,4\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l ilave bir art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. EUR\/USD 1,1500 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, GBP\/USD \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ortamda 1,3270\u2019e yak\u0131n geriledi; USD\/JPY ise Warsh\u2019\u0131n %2 enflasyon hedefini yinelemesiyle 160,80\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

AUD\/USD, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131yla 0,7000 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cyaramazl\u0131k yapmas\u0131\u201d halinde sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. WTI, \u0130ran tankerlerinin bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steren verilerin ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75,40 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay kal\u0131rken, risk primi tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131. Alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.240 dolara geriledi. G\u00fcndemde SNB raporlar\u0131 ve faiz karar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere istihdam verileri ve GfK g\u00fcven endeksi, BoE karar\u0131, ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Philadelphia Fed anketi, Japonya T\u00dcFE ve BoJ tutanaklar\u0131 ile Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Almanya \u00dcFE verisi yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dolar G\u00fcc\u00fc ve G10 Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in d\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fahin duru\u015fu, ABD dolar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor. 100,00 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) yeni zirveleri hedefledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu tablo, endeksin %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi 2022 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcndeki sert ralliyi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar senaryosundan faydalanan stratejiler olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa (short) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 ar\u0131yoruz. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, Haziran 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki faiz indirimiyle y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc zaten g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun May\u0131s\u2019ta %2,6\u2019ya gerilemesiyle ECB\u2019nin patikas\u0131 Fed\u2019inkinden belirgin \u015fekilde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. BoE\u2019nin bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 karar kritik olacak; bizim bekledi\u011fimiz gibi g\u00fcvercin bir \u201csabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131, sterlinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,80\u2019e hareketi \u00f6nemli; ancak koruma olmadan bu seviyelerin pe\u015finden gitme konusunda temkinli olunmal\u0131. Getiri fark\u0131 olduk\u00e7a destekleyici olsa da, Japon yetkililer yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015fte m\u00fcdahaleye ba\u015fvurdu; bunun \u00f6rnekleri 2022 sonu ve parite 155 seviyesini a\u015farken 2024 boyunca gelen s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131larla g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m (buy the dips) arayaca\u011f\u0131z; ancak ani bir m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n, Petrol ve Volatilite G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Emtialarda alt\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentileri, getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rarak fiyat \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Reel getirilerin en son zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023 sonundaki gibi, alt\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck destek seviyelerinin yeniden test edilmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Petrol daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir i\u015flem konusu olmaya devam ediyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u015eimdilik WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 72-78 dolar band\u0131nda yatay kalmas\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli talep sinyallerini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in, son olarak 3,7 milyon varillik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren haftal\u0131k EIA stok verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar Fed\u2019in yeni g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlarken volatilitenin artmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Philly Fed imalat anketi, Fed\u2019in veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ilk s\u0131nav\u0131 olacak. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda maj\u00f6r endeksler veya d\u00f6viz pariteleri \u00fczerinde opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla volatilite sat\u0131n alman\u0131n temkinli ve mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir strateji olabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed \u015fahin kald\u0131, DXY 100,40\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131; dot plot 2026 faizi %3,8\u2019e \u00e7ekti. EUR\/GBP\u2019de short, USD\/JPY\u2019de m\u00fcdahale riskiyle dip al\u0131m\u0131; alt\u0131n bask\u0131da, WTI 72-78 band\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49060\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}