Sterlin, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ve a\u00e7\u0131klama metninden ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) ifadelerini \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ilk ba\u015fkanl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 oldu. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle GBP\/USD 1,3300 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inerek iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geriledi. Fed, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizliklere ra\u011fmen ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini belirtti. Enflasyonun, k\u0131smen enerji dahil baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten arz \u015foklar\u0131 nedeniyle, %2\u2019lik hedefe k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi vurgusunu da yineledi.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti (SEP), Fed Fon Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6nem sonunda medyan beklentisinin marttaki %3,4\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, ekonominin 2026 sonuna kadar %2,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu %3,3 seviyesinde tahmin ediliyor; bu da Fed\u2019in %2\u2019lik hedefinin 1,3 puan \u00fczerinde. Piyasa cephesinde ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 15 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,20\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 benimsedi\u011fi yeni ve daha agresif duru\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmenin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rsa da mesaj net: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele bir numaral\u0131 \u00f6ncelik. Bu ortam, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu \u015fahin duru\u015fu do\u011frulayarak Fed\u2019e y\u00fcksek faizleri koruma alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor. Son ABD istihdam raporu 270 binin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kalmaya devam ediyor; bu seviye Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ve yap\u0131\u015fkan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 kombinasyonu, faiz indirimlerinin piyasalar\u0131n daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzak olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki tabloyla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca %0,9\u2019luk daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. ABD\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ise daha erken faiz indirimlerini g\u00fcndemine almak zorunda kalabilece\u011fi bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, GBP\/USD paritesi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. 1,3300 seviyesinin alt\u0131na son k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir teknik sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, sterlinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. 1,3200 ve 1,3150 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na yak\u0131n seviyelerde GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken azami riski net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlamam\u0131za imkan veriyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k bir y\u00f6nlendirme sunmamas\u0131, kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu da vadeli i\u015flemlerde do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyon almaya k\u0131yasla opsiyonlar\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; zira opsiyonlar, z\u0131mni volatilitedeki art\u0131\u015ftan da faydalanabilir. Piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki hamlesi i\u00e7in temel kataliz\u00f6r olarak bir sonraki ABD enflasyon raporunu yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin sert \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131: Fed faizi sabit tutup y\u00f6nlendirmeyi kald\u0131r\u0131nca dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, GBP\/USD 1,3300 alt\u0131na inerek iki ay\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u015eahin Fed-BoE ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc besliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47807,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49054"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49054\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}