DJIA, Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n karar\u0131n daha \u015fahin projeksiyonlarla desteklenmesinin ard\u0131ndan geri d\u00f6nmeden \u00f6nce \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez rekor k\u0131rd\u0131. Endeks seans i\u00e7i zirvesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 480 puan alt\u0131na gelerek 51.800 civar\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ard\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131pla dengelendi. FOMC, nisan ay\u0131nda 8\u2019e 4 b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeye k\u0131yasla bu kez oybirli\u011fiyle 12\u2019ye 0 oyla hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50-%3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131. Gev\u015feme e\u011filimini kald\u0131r\u0131rken fiyat istikrar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verimlilik ile yat\u0131r\u0131mlara i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 SEP tetikledi: 2026 medyan federal fon projeksiyonu mart ay\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,4\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, 2026 medyan PCE enflasyon tahmini %2,7\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna tepki olarak 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 11 baz puan artarak %4,16\u2019ya yakla\u015ft\u0131. Warsh, bilan\u00e7o dahil Fed operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek \u00fczere be\u015f g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve ileti\u015fim \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ile SEP\u2019teki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin y\u0131l sonuna kadar gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n %0,9 artmas\u0131yla birlikte faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek segmentler zay\u0131flad\u0131; Nasdaq Composite ve Russell 2000, en k\u00f6t\u00fc anlar\u0131nda %1\u2019e yak\u0131n geriledi. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan teknik seviyeler 52.000 ve 52.300 diren\u00e7; 51.800 ve ard\u0131ndan 51.500 destek olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) halihaz\u0131rda %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 17\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, piyasa korkusunun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal. \u0130lk tepkimiz, bu zirvelerden olas\u0131 ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in SPX ve DIA gibi geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak.<\/p>\n
52.300 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m denemesinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede piyasa i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan olu\u015fturarak \u00f6nemli bir ay\u0131 sinyali veriyor. Bu yeni direnci de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla 52.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla bear call spread\u2019ler kuruyoruz. Bu strateji, Dow\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ve Fed\u2019in yeni duru\u015fu sindirilirken g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek yatay konsolidasyondan getiri sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Aylar boyunca piyasan\u0131n lokomotifi olan faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme sekt\u00f6rlerinden pozisyonumuzu azaltarak yeniden konumlan\u0131yoruz. Fon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 verileri, teknoloji odakl\u0131 fonlarda bu hafta 2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu \u015fimdiden g\u00f6steriyor; bu e\u011filimin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Nasdaq 100\u2019de put al\u0131yor ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131ndan faydalanma e\u011filimindeki finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde call opsiyonlar\u0131na rotasyon yap\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,16\u2019ya sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi, piyasan\u0131n en do\u011frudan tepkisi. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Treasury Note vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr agresif Fed pivotlar\u0131 getiri e\u011frisini yatayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r; \u015fu anda da 10-2 y\u0131ll\u0131k fark\u0131n 5 baz puan daralmas\u0131yla bunu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Russell 2000\u2019in sert gerilemesiyle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisselerdeki bask\u0131, bu \u015firketlerin artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine daha duyarl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 ekonomik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Hisse senedi put\/call oran\u0131 0,78\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rayarak iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma almak i\u00e7in h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, defansif e\u011filimimizi teyit ediyor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu koruyucu pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed faizi sabit tuttu ama SEP\u2019te \u015fahin revizyonlar Dow\u2019u rekor sonras\u0131 51.800\u2019e \u00e7ekti; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,16\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, VIX 17 \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasa defansife d\u00f6n\u00fcyor, opsiyonla korunma ve finans rotasyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49053\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}