Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC), nisan ay\u0131ndaki 8\u20134\u2019l\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeyi tersine \u00e7evirerek oybirli\u011fiyle 12\u20130 kararla hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Bu s\u0131rada EUR\/USD, 1,1600\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 pip gerileyerek 1,1550\u2019yi k\u0131rd\u0131 ve 1,1500\u2019e do\u011fru yoklama yapt\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klama metninden gev\u015feme e\u011filimine i\u015faret eden ifadeler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken, bunun yerine fiyat istikrar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k vurguland\u0131. \u0130stihdam de\u011ferlendirmesi de, i\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ayn\u0131 tempoda seyretti\u011fi \u015feklinde revize edildi; verimlilik ve sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti (SEP) faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 kayd\u0131rd\u0131: 2026 medyan federal fon oran\u0131 tahmini marttaki %3,4\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve mevcut faizin 25 baz puan \u00fczerine yerle\u015fti. Enflasyon tahminleri de e\u015f zamanl\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131: 2026 PCE %2,7\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek PCE ise %3,3 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu art\u0131\u015f, yeni \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesine ra\u011fmen geldi; yetkililerin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede Kevin Warsh, bilan\u00e7o dahil Fed operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 incelemek \u00fczere be\u015f g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc kuruldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; SEP\u2019te olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fikliklere ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar yeni bir ileti\u015fim \u00e7er\u00e7evesine i\u015faret etti. Fiyatlamada CME FedWatch, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019ye yak\u0131n g\u00f6sterirken, bu oran ekimde %60\u2019a, aral\u0131kta ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019e y\u00fckseliyor; yak\u0131n vadeli toplant\u0131lar ise a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak \u201csabit\u201d \u015feklinde fiyatlanmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in ani \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Euro i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, yukar\u0131 revize edilen ve art\u0131k faiz indirimi yerine olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden yeni \u201cdot plot\u201d kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakaland\u0131. Bu nedenle stratejilerimizi, \u00f6zellikle Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 tercih edecek \u015fekilde g\u00fcncellemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu pivot, Fed\u2019in enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 agresif kalmas\u0131na alan a\u00e7an son makro verilerle de destekleniyor. Son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporu \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 seviyesinde inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, en son istihdam raporu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 270 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu veriler, ekonominin daha y\u00fcksek faizleri ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini ve Fed\u2019in yeni tahmin patikas\u0131n\u0131 daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 art\u0131k belirgin ve muhtemelen daha da a\u00e7\u0131lacak. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ge\u00e7en hafta kendi d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde \u201cduraklama\u201d sinyali vererek dolar\u0131n g\u00f6rece daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi i\u00e7in net bir temel neden olu\u015fturdu. Geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131, euro tutmaya k\u0131yasla dolar tutmay\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nsel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fczde, EUR\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 cazip buluyoruz. \u00d6zellikle kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1500 civar\u0131nda olan putlara bak\u0131yoruz; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu kritik psikolojik seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu strateji, eurodaki ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in riski tan\u0131ml\u0131, net bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Fed y\u00f6netimi, daha az net bir \u201cileri y\u00f6nlendirme\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na ge\u00e7ilece\u011fini de i\u015faret etti; bu durumun piyasa volatilitesini neredeyse kesin olarak art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu da, gelecekteki Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ve enflasyon verisi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda straddle gibi opsiyon al\u0131m stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019de ima edilen volatilitenin mevcut seviyelerden y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck pe\u015fin maliyetle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon kurmak isteyenler i\u00e7in ise EUR\/USD call spread sat\u0131yoruz. 1,1600 seviyesini \u201ctavan\u201d olarak kullanarak, parite bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direncin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece kazan\u00e7 \u00fcreten i\u015flemler kurgulanabilir. B\u00f6ylece, Euro\u2019daki olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareketlerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla prim toplanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019den \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz: Faiz %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te oybirli\u011fiyle sabit, SEP 2026 faizi %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1550\u2019yi k\u0131rd\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131 dolar lehine; 1,1500 put\/call spread sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49051"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49051\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}