USD\/JPY, Federal Rezerv\u2019in Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Ba\u015fkan olarak ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 160,40 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Parite, FOMC a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 160,12 dip seviyesinden toparlanarak 160,43 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, \u201cilave faiz ayarlamalar\u0131\u201dna at\u0131fta bulunan ifadeyi metinden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; piyasalar bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi daha temkinli ve verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma ge\u00e7i\u015f olarak yorumlad\u0131. G\u00fcncellenen projeksiyonlarda 2026 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi marttaki %2,4\u2019ten %2,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ferken, uzun d\u00f6nem tahmini %2\u2019de kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Noktasal grafik (dot plot) temkinli tonunu korudu ve enflasyon risklerinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k ile jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck patikada yetkililer aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Warsh, Fed\u2019in ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji fiyat hareketleri kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerine odaklanmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyonun %2 hedefine kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6neldi\u011fine dair daha fazla g\u00fcven g\u00f6rmek istedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY, 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (160,27) ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (159,95) \u00fczerinde tutunurken, desteklerin 160,31 ve 160,27 \u00e7evresinde k\u00fcmelendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. RSI 56\u2019ya yak\u0131n seyrederken, diren\u00e7 160,48 civar\u0131nda i\u015faretlendi; ilave destek seviyeleri 160,15 ve 160,12 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131 bu e\u011filimi ta\u015f\u0131maya devam edecek. Bu ortam, USD\/JPY\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015finden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Belirleyici unsur faiz fark\u0131; Fed\u2019in %3,50 alt band\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %0,1\u2019e yak\u0131n faizi baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fark halihaz\u0131rda 3,4 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu geni\u015f makas, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6neldi\u011fi carry trade i\u015flemlerini te\u015fvik ediyor. Bu temel bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeni zay\u0131f tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 seviyesi, Japon otoritelerinin olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 bayrak. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te bunun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; kur tam da bu e\u015fik a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,79 trilyon yen harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan her yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, ani ve sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn belirgin bir olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funu bilmek zorunda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, do\u011frudan uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 kayda de\u011fer risk ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alman\u0131n daha ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahalesi halinde azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmaya imkan tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale tehdidi nedeniyle yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Nisan 2024\u2019teki endi\u015feler s\u0131ras\u0131nda USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u015fimdi de benzer ko\u015fullara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Opsiyonlardaki bu daha y\u00fcksek maliyetler, politika kaynakl\u0131 ani bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigortan\u0131n bedeli niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak ABD enflasyon verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon, Fed\u2019in temkinli pozisyonunu peki\u015ftirecektir. Ayr\u0131ca Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur hareketleri\u201dne ili\u015fkin gelebilecek her yorum, potansiyel m\u00fcdahaleye y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan bir uyar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Bu iki unsur, USD\/JPY hareketinin ana belirleyicileri olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/JPY 160,40\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131! Warsh ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki Fed faizi sabit tuttu, metinden \u201cilave ayarlama\u201d vurgusunu \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019i desteklerken 160\u2019ta Japon m\u00fcdahalesi riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49048\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}