{"id":49047,"date":"2026-06-18T01:42:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-2026-faiz-ve-enflasyon-tahminlerini-yukari-cekerken-gevseme-egilimini-terk-etti-eur-usd-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T01:42:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:42:12","slug":"fed-2026-faiz-ve-enflasyon-tahminlerini-yukari-cekerken-gevseme-egilimini-terk-etti-eur-usd-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-2026-faiz-ve-enflasyon-tahminlerini-yukari-cekerken-gevseme-egilimini-terk-etti-eur-usd-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed, 2026 faiz ve enflasyon tahminlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerken gev\u015feme e\u011filimini terk etti; EUR\/USD geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal Rezerv, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc federal fonlama oran\u0131n\u0131 %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) karar\u0131 Nisan\u2019daki 8\u2019e 4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeye k\u0131yasla bu kez 12\u2019ye 0 oyla oybirli\u011fiyle ald\u0131. Metinden gev\u015feme e\u011filimi (easing bias) \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken, gelecekteki ayarlamalar\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin t\u00fcm y\u00f6nlendirmeler de kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131; bunun yerine fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tesis etme taahh\u00fcd\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019nde (SEP) medyan 2026 federal fonlama oran\u0131 tahmini Mart\u2019taki %3,4 seviyesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, enflasyon tahminleri yukar\u0131 revize edildi. Medyan 2026 PCE tahmini %2,7\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE projeksiyonu %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi. Piyasalarda, a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 EUR\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 pip gerileyerek 1,1600\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndan 1,1550 b\u00f6lgesine (g\u00fcn\u00fcn dibi) indi ve odak 18:30 GMT\u2019deki Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n Yeniden Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\n

Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn 18 Haziran 2026 tarihi oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in ani \u015fahinle\u015fmesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin tabloyu k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatl\u0131yordu; ancak yeni projeksiyonlar bunu tamamen tersine \u00e7evirerek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor. Art\u0131k daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisiyle al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131 senaryosuna haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, oybirli\u011fi ve gev\u015feme e\u011filiminden vazge\u00e7ilmesi Komite\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kanaat sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Verilen \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz sinyaline paralel olarak, SOFR\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 olanlar da dahil faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Fed\u2019in 2022\u2019deki agresif pivotunun hat\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, merkez bankas\u0131 enflasyon konusunda ciddile\u015fti\u011finde piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD\u2019deki anl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, dolar\u0131n yeniden \u201csahip olunmas\u0131 gereken\u201d para birimi konumuna ge\u00e7ti\u011fine dair net bir i\u015faret. Paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin devam\u0131 beklenirken, bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 1,1500 alt\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Dolar endeksi (DXY) tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr \u015fahin pivotlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan izleyen alt\u0131 ayda ortalama %5-%7 y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetmi\u015f olup, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tarihsel destek sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Daha Geni\u015f Piyasa Riskleri ve Fed\u2019in Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Bu yeni ger\u00e7eklik, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizden beslenen hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumsuz bir zemine i\u015faret ediyor. Volatilitede art\u0131\u015f beklenmeli; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar S&P 500\u2019de put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya VIX\u2019te call opsiyonlar\u0131 gibi korunma ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Fed, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak ad\u0131na daha zay\u0131f ekonomik faaliyeti kabullenmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor; bu duru\u015f, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve ge\u00e7en ay 272 bin ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetmesiyle de destekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in 2026 i\u00e7in enflasyonu %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselten \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 revizyonu, sadece geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck verilerden ziyade kal\u0131c\u0131 temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na tepki verdiklerini g\u00f6steriyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ait son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonda %3,3\u2019e do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u0131l\u0131mlamaya i\u015faret etse de, Komite kendi tahmin setinde bunun yetersiz g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveye odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu da planlanan indirimlerden uzakla\u015fan dramatik politika de\u011fi\u015fimini gerek\u00e7elendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019den s\u00fcrpriz \u015fahin sinyal: Faiz %3,50-%3,75\u2019te sabit kal\u0131rken gev\u015feme e\u011filimi silindi, y\u00f6nlendirme kalkt\u0131. 2026 faiz\/enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fckseldi; EUR\/USD 50 pip d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49047\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}