Federal Rezerv \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131 %3,50 – %3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tuttu ve Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) politikay\u0131 korumak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 12\u2019ye 0 oy verdi. Bu, Nisan ay\u0131ndaki 8\u2019e 4\u2019l\u00fck oylamaya k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fikir birli\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada gev\u015feme e\u011filimi (easing bias) kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, gelecekteki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin at\u0131flar \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131 ve fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tesis etmeye y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan bir taahh\u00fct ortaya kondu.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019nde (SEP) 2026 federal fon oran\u0131 i\u00e7in medyan beklenti Mart ay\u0131ndaki %3,4\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, enflasyon tahminleri de yukar\u0131 revize edildi: 2026 medyan PCE %2,7\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm %3,3 olarak belirlendi. Piyasalar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi; karar \u00f6ncesinde 99,60\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak seans zirvesini bu seviyenin hemen \u00fczerinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dikkatler \u015fimdi 18:30 GMT\u2019de Ba\u015fkan olarak Kevin Warsh\u2019un ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor.<\/p>\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in d\u00fcnk\u00fc ani \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin t\u00fcm stratejimizi de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Art\u0131k faiz indirimi pozisyonu alm\u0131yoruz; bunun yerine y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 riskini y\u00f6netmek zorunday\u0131z. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor; CME\u2019nin faiz olas\u0131l\u0131k arac\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bir art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, daha ge\u00e7en ay fiyatlanan faiz indirimlerine k\u0131yasla \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n
En acil tepkimiz, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) kritik 100,00 seviyesini net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fmas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmak. Fed\u2019in agresifle\u015fip di\u011ferlerinin teredd\u00fct etti\u011fi bu t\u00fcr politika ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, tarihsel olarak dolar i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyalidir; 2022 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen kal\u0131c\u0131 ralliye benzer \u015fekilde. Bu beklenen g\u00fcc\u00fc kald\u0131ra\u00e7lamak i\u00e7in DXY \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya euro \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc hisse senetleri i\u00e7in ciddi bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor; bu nedenle portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131 eklememiz gerekiyor. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; bu da S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 endeksleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip korunma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 haline getiriyor. Son veriler yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 teknoloji hisselerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; bu e\u011filimin \u015fimdi belirgin bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019deki bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, son ekonomik veriler taraf\u0131ndan da gerek\u00e7elendiriliyor; zira bu veriler, indirimi g\u00fcndeme almalar\u0131n\u0131 dahi engelliyor. Son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) raporu enflasyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, en g\u00fcncel istihdam raporu ekonominin \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 265.000 yeni istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. \u0130nat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon ile diren\u00e7li i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bu bile\u015fimi, Fed\u2019e oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcnhas\u0131ran fiyat istikrar\u0131na \u00e7evirmesi i\u00e7in net bir gerek\u00e7e sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019ten \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz: faiz %3,50-3,75\u2019te sabit, gev\u015feme bias\u2019\u0131 kalkt\u0131; 2026 faiz ve enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fckseldi. DXY 100\u2019\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %65 art\u0131r\u0131m fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49046\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}