West Texas Intermediate, art arda d\u00f6rt sert kay\u0131p seans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 75,70 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,22 geriledi. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de imzalanmas\u0131 beklenen ge\u00e7ici ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 bulunuyor. S\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyat\u0131n kademeli toparlanmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor. Denizcilik verileri, bu hafta baz\u0131 \u0130ran tankerlerinin yeniden hareketlendi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, bu durum \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn iyile\u015fmesiyle Orta Do\u011fu ham petrol fiyatlamalar\u0131 yumu\u015fad\u0131: Dubai ham petrol\u00fc Ocak\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez kontangoya ge\u00e7ti; spot Umman ve Murban diferansiyelleri ise iskontolu b\u00f6lgeye kayd\u0131. Bununla birlikte, fiziksel ak\u0131\u015flarda tam normalle\u015fmenin h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler var. Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale, uyum s\u00fcrecinin g\u00f6stergeler aras\u0131nda homojen olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Brent fiyatlamas\u0131, z\u0131mni volatilite ve opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normalle\u015fme sinyali vermedi\u011fini belirtirken, MUFG son petrol fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon risklerinin azalmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in politika esnekli\u011finin artmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 75,70 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelenmesiyle, yar\u0131n beklenen ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser haberlerin \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131, d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadede odak noktam\u0131z, mutabakat\u0131n detaylar\u0131 ve resmi teyidin ard\u0131ndan piyasada ilave bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131p ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken ana unsur, daha fazla \u0130ran petrol\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131; son veriler de arz\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. D\u00fcn yay\u0131mlanan Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) raporu, stoklarda beklentilerin aksine 2,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130ran ihracat\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini ve \u00f6zellikle en yak\u0131n vadeli (front-month) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu yeni arz\u0131n k\u00fcresel dengeleri ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fi konusunda temkinliyiz. 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, lojistik ve yat\u0131r\u0131m engelleri nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rmas\u0131 alt\u0131 aydan uzun s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu kez de benzer bir gecikme ya\u015fanmas\u0131, fiziksel varillerin piyasaya beklenenden yava\u015f gelmesi halinde k\u0131sa vadeli bir fiyat tepkisi\/yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, kalan risklerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Spot fiyat gerilemi\u015f olsa da, CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) y\u00fcksek seviyesini koruyor ve 30 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere sorunsuz bi\u00e7imde inece\u011fine tam ikna olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Diplomatik sonucun netle\u015fmesi halinde, k\u0131sa strangle gibi volatilite satmaya dayal\u0131 stratejiler potansiyel olarak cazip olabilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu referanslar\u0131nda geli\u015fen kontango yap\u0131s\u0131\u2014yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n ileri vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131\u2014net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu yap\u0131, mevcut durumda arz\u0131n bol oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu piyasa dinami\u011finden faydalanmak i\u00e7in A\u011fustos vadeli WTI kontrat\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131p Aral\u0131k vadeli kontrat\u0131 almak gibi takvim spread i\u015flemlerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, son fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc enflasyon endi\u015felerini hafifletiyor; bu da Fed\u2019i etkileyebilir. Fed yetkilileri temkinli bir duru\u015f sinyali veriyor; ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesi, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha fazla esneklik sa\u011flayabilir. Bu makro destek, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde temel talebi destekleyerek ham petrolde bir taban olu\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde g\u00f6zler \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019deki ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici mutabakat\u0131nda: WTI 75,70 dolarda. \u0130ran ihracat\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc arz\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; stoklar y\u00fckseldi, Orta Do\u011fu kontango, OVX y\u00fcksek. Fed esnekli\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49042\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}