ABN AMRO, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde EUR\/USD\u2019nin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn, de\u011fi\u015fen Fed beklenteleri ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi temel dinamiklerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bankan\u0131n ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyonda kademeli bir yak\u0131nsamaya i\u015faret ederken, daralan faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde euroya destek vermesinin beklendi\u011fini vurguluyor. Banka bu durumu, son d\u00f6nemdeki ABD \u201cistisnac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan\u201d uzakla\u015fma olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelerken, veri s\u00fcrprizleri ve k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlerin k\u0131sa vadede sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fine de dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Baz senaryoda Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna ECB\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131l\u0131yor; bu da EUR\/USD\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek bir patikay\u0131 destekleyebilir. Ancak rapor, ko\u015fullu bir risk senaryosu da ortaya koyuyor: Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 tutmas\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin gev\u015feme planlar\u0131nda daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerlemesi h\u00e2linde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir. Ayr\u0131ca Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde zay\u0131flama, yeniden par\u00e7alanma (fragmentation) endi\u015feleri veya ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ABN AMRO\u2019nun \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryolar da s\u0131ralan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD paritesinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. ABD ekonomisinin belirgin \u015fekilde daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi d\u00f6nem, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re h\u0131z kesiyor ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne daha da yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu yak\u0131nsama, euroyu dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeli.<\/p>\n
Faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn kilit itici g\u00fcc\u00fc. Fed fonlama faizi \u015fu anda %3,50 seviyesindeyken, ECB mevduat imk\u00e2n\u0131 faizi %2,75 d\u00fczeyinde; b\u00f6ylece makas, 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen %1,5\u2019lik farka k\u0131yasla belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daralm\u0131\u015f durumda. ABD enflasyonunun %2,5\u2019e gerilemesi (Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde HICP %2,2) ile birlikte piyasalar, Fed\u2019in ECB\u2019ye k\u0131yasla ilave gev\u015feme i\u00e7in daha fazla alana sahip oldu\u011funu fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu tablo, euro lehine pozisyonlanman\u0131n temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. A\u011fustos veya Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. 1,1100 civar\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, olas\u0131l\u0131k ile potansiyel getiri aras\u0131nda dengeli bir profil sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yeniden ivmelendi\u011fine ya da Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha \u015fahin bir tona y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fine dair i\u015faretler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc zorlayabilecek s\u00fcrprizler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde beklenmedik bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle Almanya imalat PMI verilerinde, eurodaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu riskleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, \u00f6rne\u011fin 1,1000 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p 1,1200 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak bir call spread stratejisi de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve baz senaryomuzla uyumlu \u015fekilde kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler. K\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k ihtimalini kabul ederken, y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini daha muhafazak\u00e2r bi\u00e7imde ifade etmenin yolunu sunar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ECB\u2019ninkinden \u00f6nce geldi\u011fi politika yak\u0131nsamas\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman euroyu destekledi. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2020 sonundaki ralli, iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki faiz beklentilerinin benzer \u015fekilde daralmas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelmi\u015fti. Mevcut ortam\u0131n bu temel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve EUR\/USD i\u00e7in yap\u0131c\u0131 bir patikaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD\u2019de yeni hik\u00e2ye: ABN AMRO, Fed beklentileri ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi dinamikleriyle faiz fark\u0131 darald\u0131k\u00e7a euronun destek bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ancak \u015fahin Fed, zay\u0131f Avrupa verisi sert oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49041\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}