Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131ndan Olaf Sleijpen, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Londra\u2019da Avrupa Ekonomi ve Finans Merkezi (EEFC) taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen bir etkinlikte, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2022\u2019deki enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanma ihtimalinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha iyi olarak nitelendiren Sleijpen, buna kar\u015f\u0131n yeniden fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sleijpen, temel endi\u015fenin ikinci tur etkiler riski oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Piyasa beklentilerinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir patikaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Sleijpen, bu patikaya ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin ise s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekledi.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019deki enflasyon sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n tekrar\u0131 tamamen d\u0131\u015flanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. En son May\u0131s 2026 Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi %2,8 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini koruyor ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lardan gelebilecek ani bir \u015fahinle\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel mesele, \u00f6zellikle \u00fccretler kaynakl\u0131 ikinci tur etkiler riski. Eurostat verileri, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde m\u00fczakere edilmi\u015f \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %4,2 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, piyasan\u0131n fazla rahat oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda fiyatlanan tek seferlik 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimin \u00f6tesinde, ECB\u2019nin faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa beklentileri petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor olabilir; ancak devam eden tedarik zinciri endi\u015feleri nedeniyle \u00f6nemli belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2022 krizinde Brent petrol\u00fcn tek bir ay i\u00e7inde %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu belirsizlikten yararlanmak i\u00e7in, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli straddle stratejileri sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz; bu strateji, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesi halinde k\u00e2r sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131malar\u0131 var; EUR\/USD 1,09 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ECB, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) daha \u015fahin bir tona zorlan\u0131rsa, faiz fark\u0131 Euro lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Bu do\u011frultuda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD paritesi \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019den Sleijpen uyard\u0131: 2022 enflasyon \u015foku d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k ama masada. \u00c7ekirdek %2,8, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,2. Piyasa rahat; faizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir. Petrol belirsiz; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49030\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}