{"id":49024,"date":"2026-06-17T19:34:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T19:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-perakende-satislari-tahminleri-asti-fedin-faiz-karari-oncesi-dolari-yukseltti\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T19:34:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T19:34:34","slug":"abd-perakende-satislari-tahminleri-asti-fedin-faiz-karari-oncesi-dolari-yukseltti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-perakende-satislari-tahminleri-asti-fedin-faiz-karari-oncesi-dolari-yukseltti\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Tahminleri A\u015ft\u0131, Fed\u2019in Faiz Karar\u0131 \u00d6ncesi Dolar\u0131 Y\u00fckseltti"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD N\u00fcfus Say\u0131m B\u00fcrosu\u2019na g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,9 artarak 763,7 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, Nisan\u2019daki %0,5\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geldi ve piyasa beklentisi olan %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda perakende sat\u0131\u015flar d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde %6,9 artt\u0131. Veride ayr\u0131ca perakende ticaret sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Nisan 2026\u2019ya g\u00f6re %1,0 (\u00b1%0,4) y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re %7,5 (\u00b1%0,5) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n

Detaylarda, ma\u011faza d\u0131\u015f\u0131 perakendeciler ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re %12,2 (\u00b1%1,8) art\u0131\u015f kaydederken, yiyecek hizmetleri ve i\u00e7ecek sunan i\u015fletmeler May\u0131s 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla %2,7 (\u00b1%1,8) y\u00fckseldi. Verinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yap\u0131lacak Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, iki g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirerek yeniden 99,60\u201399,70 band\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

ABD T\u00fcketici G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Para Politikas\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n

17 Haziran 2026 tarihli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc May\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2019li t\u00fcketicinin beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu ve ekonomik yava\u015flama anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklentinin neredeyse iki kat\u0131 olan bu %0,9\u2019luk ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, Fed\u2019in g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyece\u011fi bir i\u00e7 talep g\u00fcc\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da g\u00fcn\u00fcn kritik FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmemizi gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n

Veri, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korudu\u011funa i\u015faret eden son T\u00dcFE (CPI) rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n da destekledi\u011fi \u015fekilde, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi sinyali verme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 senaryonun \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz patikas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerin politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrekli \u00f6teledi\u011fi 2023\u2019teki kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon m\u00fccadelesini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimine pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Dolar Endeksi (DXY) y\u00fckseli\u015finin muhtemelen sadece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyor; \u00f6zellikle merkez bankalar\u0131 daha g\u00fcvercin olan para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 USD\u2019de al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcniyoruz. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ayr\u0131ca, bu t\u00fcketim verisiyle birlikte Atlanta Fed GDPNow modelinin mevcut %2,1\u2019lik 2\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini yukar\u0131 revize etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Varl\u0131k S\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 Genelinde Piyasa Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda devlet tahvili getirileri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. Fed\u2019den \u015fahin tonda bir \u201cpas\u201d (faizi sabit tutma) senaryosuna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR kontrat\u0131 gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n, son bir ayda biriken g\u00fcvercin beklentileri yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 gerekecek.<\/p>\n

Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda ise tablo karma\u015f\u0131k; oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 muhtemel. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015flar \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz tehdidi \u00f6zellikle teknoloji gibi faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde endeks kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Beklenen dalgal\u0131 seyri de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in VIX call opsiyonlar\u0131na al\u0131m ya da S&P 500 \u00fczerinde straddle stratejileri kurmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, alt\u0131n gibi getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, fiyat \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Daha \u015fahin bir Fed senaryosuna do\u011frudan bir i\u015flem olarak alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmekteyiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,9 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131: t\u00fcketici g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, \u201cfaiz indirimi\u201d ihtimali zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. DXY toparland\u0131; tahvil getirileri yukar\u0131, alt\u0131n bask\u0131da, volatilite artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49024"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49024\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}