ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda h\u0131zlanarak \u00f6nceki %4,9 seviyesinden %6,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, ay boyunca t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda ivmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s verisi, \u00f6nceki orana g\u00f6re 2,0 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek y\u0131ll\u0131k perakende faaliyetteki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kaymay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasalar, daha h\u0131zl\u0131 seyrin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki verilerde daha geni\u015f talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na ve fiyat dinamiklerine ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tartacak.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n %4,9\u2019dan %6,9\u2019a s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, t\u00fcketicinin beklenenden \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harcama g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,8 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret eden son May\u0131s T\u00dcFE raporuyla birle\u015fince, Federal Rezerv \u00fczerinde kayda de\u011fer bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bize g\u00f6re piyasa, merkez bankas\u0131ndan daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015f gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch Arac\u0131, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %40\u2019t\u0131. Daha y\u00fcksek faizlere y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma de\u011ferlendirilmelidir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, hisse senetleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirsizlik yaratarak volatiliteyi yukar\u0131 itebilir. VIX \u015fimdiden 18\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131 ve piyasa, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ihtimali sindirirken endeksin y\u00fcksek seyrini korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Koruma veya volatilite al\u0131m\u0131 taraf\u0131nda; VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ya da SPY gibi geni\u015f piyasa endeks ETF\u2019lerinde \u201ccollar\u201d stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 i\u015flemler de bu a\u015famada cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 do\u011frudan t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) hisselerini destekler; bu nedenle XRT gibi perakende ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k teknoloji gibi faizlere duyarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme sekt\u00f6rleri muhtemelen bask\u0131 g\u00f6recektir; QQQ gibi ETF\u2019lerde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, hem korunma hem de spek\u00fclatif pozisyon olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentileriyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklenebilir. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Mart\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 106 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu trendin s\u00fcrmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve DXY vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar veya al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022\u2019deki piyasa ortam\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: Kal\u0131c\u0131 ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, Fed\u2019i piyasan\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha agresif bir tepkiye zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nem, varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde belirgin bir yeniden fiyatlama ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut veriler, benzer bir dinami\u011fin devreye girebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve buna uygun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta %4,9\u2019dan %6,9\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, t\u00fcketici g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bu, Fed\u2019i daha \u015fahinle\u015ftirebilir; FedWatch Temmuz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %75. VIX 18+, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; SOFR k\u0131sa, DXY uzun g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49023\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}